--- title: "17 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-turn.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-turn" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "How often do 17 outs hit on the turn? 36.96% on the river. Odds against, shortcut error and the bet sizes you can call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 17 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit How often do 17 outs hit on the turn? 36.96% on the river. Odds against, shortcut error and the bet sizes you can call. On the turn, one card is still to come. With 17 outs, the chance that an out lands on the river is 36.96%, and the sections below price that chance against a bet. - Chance to hit on the river: 36.96% (17 outs, one card to come) - Odds against: 1.71 : 1 - Rule of 2 estimate: 34% (-2.96 points from the exact chance) - Unseen cards: 46 ## The count behind 17 outs on the turn Between one chance in five and two in five, 36.96% is a draw worth playing when the bet is not oversized. - Unseen cards: 46 - Your outs: 17 - Cards that miss: 29 - Chance on the river: 36.96% - Chance on the next card (the river): 36.96% - Odds against hitting: 1.71 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 2: 34% - Error of the rule of 2: -2.96 points - Chance on the river = k / u, with u = 46 unseen cards - For 17 outs: 17 / 46 = 36.96% Divide your outs by the unseen cards: 17 / 46 = 36.96%. The other 29 cards are blanks. Being 2.96 points low, 34% still points the right way, but the exact 36.96% is the number to put against a bet. Here the shortcut is simply 2 per out: 34% in total, with no adjustment at this count. ## Which holding has 17 outs? You will not find a standard named draw for this number. Reach 17 by adding the outs of separate draws and subtracting any card that appears in both. Shared outs are a quiet leak. From 36.96%, a single shared out leaves 34.78%, and 3 of them leave 30.43%. 17 outs on the turn when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance on the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 17 | 36.96% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 16 | 34.78% | 2.17 points | | 2 | 15 | 32.61% | 4.35 points | | 3 | 14 | 30.43% | 6.52 points | ## The bets 17 outs can call on the turn Read the table from the top: small bets need little equity, and the requirement climbs with the bet. Your 36.96% clears 8 of the 12 bet sizes. 17 outs on the turn against every bet size, with your chance on the river at 36.96% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +20.29 points | Call | | [1/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +16.96 points | Call | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | +14.73 points | Call | | [1/2 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-turn-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +11.96 points | Call | | 2/3 pot | 28.57% | +8.39 points | Call | | [3/4 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/17-outs-turn-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +6.96 points | Call | | full pot | 33.33% | +3.62 points | Call | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | +1.24 points | Call | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -0.54 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -3.04 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -5.90 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -7.49 points | Fold | The line between call and fold is a bet of 141.67% of the pot, or $141.67 on a $100 pot. Stay at or under it and the draw pays for itself. ## Nearby counts on both streets Not sure whether to count one more out? It changes the chance by about 2.17 points. The table shows both streets for the counts around 17. Counts near 17: the chance by the river on the turn and on the flop | Outs | Turn, by the river | Flop, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [15](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/15-outs-turn.md) | 32.61% | 54.12% | | [16](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-turn.md) | 34.78% | 56.98% | | 17 (this page) | 36.96% | 59.76% | | [18](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/18-outs-turn.md) | 39.13% | 62.44% | | [19](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/19-outs-turn.md) | 41.30% | 65.03% | - [17 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-flop.md): 59.76% by the river. - [16 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/16-outs-turn.md): 34.78% on the river. - [18 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/18-outs-turn.md): 39.13% on the river. ## The river is the last card You do not need a second view on the turn. The 36.96% chance is final, and against a half-pot price of 25.00% it leaves +11.96 points: Call. ## Questions ### How often do 17 outs hit on the turn? With 17 outs on the turn you hit on the river 36.96% of the time, about 37 of every 100 hands, because 17 of the 46 unseen cards are outs. The odds against are 1.71 : 1. ### How far off is the rule of 2 with 17 outs on the turn? The rule of 2 gives 34% for 17 outs against an exact 36.96%, an error of -2.96 points. The shortcut sits below the true chance, so the exact figure is better for you. ### Do 17 outs on the turn justify a call, and against which bets? At 36.96% on the river, you can call 8 of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of +11.96 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Call. The largest bet you can call is 141.67% of the pot, or $141.67 on a $100 pot. ### What is the effective count if some of the 17 outs are shared? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance on the river falls from 36.96% to 34.78%, and with 3 shared it falls to 30.43%, a loss of 6.52 points. The effective count is then 14 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit on the river from the turn is k / 46, where 46 is the number of unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 17 outs that is 17 / 46 = 36.96%. The next card is the river, so both chances are the same. The rule of 2 figure is 2 x k, here 34%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -2.96 points. Read the figures as a card count. All 46 unseen cards stay in, including any your opponent holds, so the figures describe your outs, not a matchup. Bets are called in full against a $100 pot with no extra money assumed. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [17 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-flop.md): The same count with two cards to come. - [Pot odds for a three-quarter-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/three-quarter-pot.md): The equity a three-quarter-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a 3x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/3x-pot.md): The equity a 3x-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)