--- title: "19 Outs on the Flop: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/19-outs-flop.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/19-outs-flop" last_updated: "2026-10-22" type: "reference" summary: "19 outs on the flop: a 65.03% chance by the river, 0.54 : 1 against. See the rule of 4 error and the bets you can call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 19 Outs on the Flop: Odds to Hit 19 outs on the flop: a 65.03% chance by the river, 0.54 : 1 against. See the rule of 4 error and the bets you can call. On the flop, two cards are still to come. With 19 outs, the chance that an out lands by the river is 65.03%, and the sections below price that chance against a bet. - Chance to hit by the river: 65.03% (19 outs, two cards to come) - Chance on the next card: 40.43% - Odds against by the river: 0.54 : 1 - Rule of 4 estimate: 76% (+10.97 points from the exact chance) ## The count behind 19 outs on the flop Counts this high behave differently. At 65.03%, the equity a call needs is below your chance for most bet sizes, and sometimes for all of them. - Unseen cards: 47 - Your outs: 19 - Cards that miss: 28 - Pairs of cards with no out: 378 - Pairs with at least one out: 703 - Chance by the river: 65.03% - Chance on the next card: 40.43% - Odds against hitting: 0.54 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 4: 76% - Error of the rule of 4: +10.97 points - Adjusted rule 4k - (k - 8): 65% - Error of the adjusted rule: -0.03 points - Chance by the river = 1 - C(u - k, 2) / C(u, 2), with u = 47 unseen cards - For 19 outs: 1 - C(28, 2) / C(47, 2) = 1 - 378 / 1,081 = 65.03% - Next card = 19 / 47 = 40.43% Work it from the miss side: 378 of 1,081 pairs hold no out, which is 34.97%. The draw lands in the rest, 65.03%. A 76% estimate against a true 65.03% is an overstatement of 10.97 points, more than the 2 points that make a shortcut safe to use unchecked. Above 8 outs the adjusted rule applies: 4 x 19 - 11 = 65%. Against 65.03%, it is off by 0.03 points. ## Which holding has 19 outs? A count of 19 is a combination, not a textbook draw. Add up the helpful cards from each part of your hand and take away any that repeat. Use the effective count, not the raw one, when a rival could be drawing too. Losing 3 outs to overlap moves 65.03% down to 56.98%. 19 outs on the flop when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance by the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 19 | 65.03% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 18 | 62.44% | 2.59 points | | 2 | 17 | 59.76% | 5.27 points | | 3 | 16 | 56.98% | 8.05 points | ## The bets 19 outs can call on the flop Read the table from the top: small bets need little equity, and the requirement climbs with the bet. Your 65.03% clears all 12 bet sizes. 19 outs on the flop against every bet size, with your chance by the river at 65.03% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +48.37 points | Call | | [1/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/19-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +45.03 points | Call | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | +42.81 points | Call | | [1/2 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/19-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +40.03 points | Call | | [2/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/19-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +36.46 points | Call | | [3/4 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/19-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +35.03 points | Call | | [full pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/19-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | +31.70 points | Call | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | +29.32 points | Call | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | +27.53 points | Call | | 2x pot | 40.00% | +25.03 points | Call | | 3x pot | 42.86% | +22.18 points | Call | | 4x pot | 44.44% | +20.59 points | Call | No bet size beats 65.03%. The equity a call needs climbs toward one half as bets grow but never gets there, so the answer is any size. ## Nearby counts on both streets Neighboring counts help you judge a close draw. One out more or less shifts the chance by roughly 2.50 points on this street. Counts near 19: the chance by the river on the flop and on the turn | Outs | Flop, by the river | Turn, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [17](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/17-outs-flop.md) | 59.76% | 36.96% | | [18](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/18-outs-flop.md) | 62.44% | 39.13% | | 19 (this page) | 65.03% | 41.30% | | [20](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/20-outs-flop.md) | 67.53% | 43.48% | - [19 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/19-outs-turn.md): 41.30% on the river. - [18 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/18-outs-flop.md): 62.44% by the river. - [20 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/20-outs-flop.md): 67.53% by the river. ## When a bet buys only one card Two views, one draw: 65.03% if you see both cards and 40.43% if you see one. Against 25.00%, the one-card view has a margin of +15.43 points and reads Call. Only 10 bet sizes stay calls on the next card alone, against 12 on the two-card figure. ## Questions ### How should I read the hit chance for 19 outs on the flop? With 19 outs on the flop you hit by the river 65.03% of the time, about 65 of every 100 hands, and on the next card 40.43%. The odds against hitting by the river are 0.54 : 1, since 378 of 1,081 pairs of unseen cards hold no out. ### What number does the rule of 4 give for 19 outs, and is it right? The rule of 4 gives 76% for 19 outs against an exact 65.03%, an error of +10.97 points, so it overstates the draw. The adjusted rule 4k - (k - 8) gives 65%, an error of -0.03 points, and is the closer figure. ### Which bets can 19 outs call on the flop? At 65.03% by the river, you can call all 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of +40.03 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Call. Any bet size is a call, because 65.03% is above one half. ### What is the effective count if some of the 19 outs are shared? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance by the river falls from 65.03% to 62.44%, and with 3 shared it falls to 56.98%, a loss of 8.05 points. The effective count is then 16 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit by the river from the flop is 1 - C(u - k, 2) / C(u, 2), where u = 47 unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 19 outs that is 1 - 378 / 1,081 = 65.03%. The chance on the next card is k / 47, here 40.43%. The rule of 4 figure is 4 x k, here 76%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here +10.97 points. The adjusted rule 4k - (k - 8) gives 65%, an error of -0.03 points. The count covers every card you cannot see. All 47 unseen cards stay in it, the call is paid in full, and the pot is $100 before the bet, so the verdicts are a plain price check. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [19 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/19-outs-turn.md): The same count with one card to come. - [Pot odds for a 1.25x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/1-25x-pot.md): The equity a 1.25x-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a quarter-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/quarter-pot.md): The equity a quarter-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)