--- title: "2 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/2-outs-turn.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/2-outs-turn" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "The turn chance for 2 outs is 4.35% on the river. See the count behind it, the odds against and the bets that chance can pay for." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 2 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit The turn chance for 2 outs is 4.35% on the river. See the count behind it, the odds against and the bets that chance can pay for. You have a 4.35% chance to hit on the river with 2 outs on the turn. The sections below show the count behind that figure, the draws that match it and the bets it can call. - Chance to hit on the river: 4.35% (2 outs, one card to come) - Odds against: 22 : 1 - Rule of 2 estimate: 4% (-0.35 points from the exact chance) - Unseen cards: 46 ## The count behind 2 outs on the turn This count leaves you empty-handed 95.65% of the time. A 4.35% chance can still be worth chasing, but only when the bet you face is a small fraction of the pot. - Unseen cards: 46 - Your outs: 2 - Cards that miss: 44 - Chance on the river: 4.35% - Chance on the next card (the river): 4.35% - Odds against hitting: 22 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 2: 4% - Error of the rule of 2: -0.35 points - Chance on the river = k / u, with u = 46 unseen cards - For 2 outs: 2 / 46 = 4.35% Divide your outs by the unseen cards: 2 / 46 = 4.35%. The other 44 cards are blanks. With 2 outs the rule of 2 stays near the truth: 4% estimated, 4.35% exact, 0.35 points apart. The correction for big counts belongs to the flop above 8 outs. Here the plain figure, 2 x 2 = 4%, is the one to use. ## Which holding has 2 outs? A pocket pair that wants a set fits this count exactly, with 2 outs. Memorizing counts like this lets you read the chance straight from the table on this page. Suppose up to 2 of your outs also help a stronger hand. The effective count drops to 0, and the chance on the river drops to 0.00%. 2 outs on the turn when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance on the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 2 | 4.35% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 1 | 2.17% | 2.17 points | | 2 | 0 | 0.00% | 4.35 points | ## The bets 2 outs can call on the turn Here is the price list. For each bet size it shows the equity a call needs, your margin over it and the verdict, and no verdict is Call. 2 outs on the turn against every bet size, with your chance on the river at 4.35% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | -12.32 points | Fold | | 1/3 pot | 20.00% | -15.65 points | Fold | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | -17.87 points | Fold | | 1/2 pot | 25.00% | -20.65 points | Fold | | 2/3 pot | 28.57% | -24.22 points | Fold | | [3/4 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/2-outs-turn-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -25.65 points | Fold | | full pot | 33.33% | -28.99 points | Fold | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -31.37 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -33.15 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -35.65 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -38.51 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -40.10 points | Fold | Stated as a share of the pot, the largest bet you can pay is 4.76%. On a $100 pot you can call up to $4.76. ## Nearby counts on both streets Not sure whether to count one more out? It changes the chance by about 2.17 points. The table shows both streets for the counts around 2. Counts near 2: the chance by the river on the turn and on the flop | Outs | Turn, by the river | Flop, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [1](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-turn.md) | 2.17% | 4.26% | | 2 (this page) | 4.35% | 8.42% | | [3](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-turn.md) | 6.52% | 12.49% | | [4](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-turn.md) | 8.70% | 16.47% | - [2 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/2-outs-flop.md): 8.42% by the river. - [1 out on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-turn.md): 2.17% on the river. - [3 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-turn.md): 6.52% on the river. ## The river is the last card On the turn there is nothing left to separate: the river is the last card, so the by-the-river chance and the next-card chance are the same 4.35%. ## Questions ### How often do 2 outs hit on the turn? With 2 outs on the turn you hit on the river 4.35% of the time, about 4 of every 100 hands, because 2 of the 46 unseen cards are outs. The odds against are 22 : 1. ### What does the rule of 2 say for a count of 2? The rule of 2 gives 4% for 2 outs against an exact 4.35%, an error of -0.35 points. That is close enough to use at the table. ### What price can a draw with 2 outs on the turn afford? At 4.35% on the river, you can call none of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of -20.65 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Fold. The largest bet you can call is 4.76% of the pot, or $4.76 on a $100 pot. ### How many points do I lose if outs are shared with a better hand? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance on the river falls from 4.35% to 2.17%, and with 2 shared it falls to 0.00%, a loss of 4.35 points. The effective count is then 0 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit on the river from the turn is k / 46, where 46 is the number of unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 2 outs that is 2 / 46 = 4.35%. The next card is the river, so both chances are the same. The rule of 2 figure is 2 x k, here 4%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -0.35 points. The model gives every one of the 46 unseen cards the same chance and removes nothing for what a rival holds. It measures hitting an out, not winning the hand. Bets are priced on a $100 pot, and a call adds one bet to the pot. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [2 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/2-outs-flop.md): The same count with two cards to come. - [Pot odds for a two-fifths-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-fifths-pot.md): The equity a two-fifths-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a 1.25x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/1-25x-pot.md): The equity a 1.25x-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)