--- title: "20 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/20-outs-turn.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/20-outs-turn" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "20 outs, turn: you hit on the river 43.48% of the time, 1.3 : 1 against, with the rule of 2 checked and every bet size priced." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 20 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit 20 outs, turn: you hit on the river 43.48% of the time, 1.3 : 1 against, with the rule of 2 checked and every bet size priced. 43.48% is the exact chance on the river when you count 20 outs on the turn. Read on for the odds against, the shortcut figure and a full table of bet sizes with a call or fold verdict. - Chance to hit on the river: 43.48% (20 outs, one card to come) - Odds against: 1.3 : 1 - Rule of 2 estimate: 40% (-3.48 points from the exact chance) - Unseen cards: 46 ## The count behind 20 outs on the turn With 43.48% on the river, you complete the hand about 43 times in 100. That is a draw you can often call big with. - Unseen cards: 46 - Your outs: 20 - Cards that miss: 26 - Chance on the river: 43.48% - Chance on the next card (the river): 43.48% - Odds against hitting: 1.3 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 2: 40% - Error of the rule of 2: -3.48 points - Chance on the river = k / u, with u = 46 unseen cards - For 20 outs: 20 / 46 = 43.48% No pairs to count here, just 20 helpful cards in a deck of 46 unseen ones. That is 43.48%, with 26 unhelpful cards making up the rest. You would sell this draw short by 3.48 points if you stopped at 40%. The exact count is 43.48%. The adjusted rule only applies from the flop above 8 outs, so 20 outs on the turn use the plain rule of 2: 2 x 20 = 40%. ## Which holding has 20 outs? A count of 20 is a combination, not a textbook draw. Add up the helpful cards from each part of your hand and take away any that repeat. Count carefully: a card that gives you the draw and gives an opponent a better hand should come off the list. One shared out takes the chance down by 2.17 points, to 41.30%. 20 outs on the turn when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance on the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 20 | 43.48% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 19 | 41.30% | 2.17 points | | 2 | 18 | 39.13% | 4.35 points | | 3 | 17 | 36.96% | 6.52 points | ## The bets 20 outs can call on the turn Compare the columns: required equity on the left, margin in the middle, verdict at the end. With 20 outs you can call 11 of the 12 bet sizes. 20 outs on the turn against every bet size, with your chance on the river at 43.48% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +26.81 points | Call | | 1/3 pot | 20.00% | +23.48 points | Call | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | +21.26 points | Call | | 1/2 pot | 25.00% | +18.48 points | Call | | 2/3 pot | 28.57% | +14.91 points | Call | | 3/4 pot | 30.00% | +13.48 points | Call | | full pot | 33.33% | +10.14 points | Call | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | +7.76 points | Call | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | +5.98 points | Call | | 2x pot | 40.00% | +3.48 points | Call | | 3x pot | 42.86% | +0.62 points | Call | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -0.97 points | Fold | Break-even for the call falls at a bet of $333.33 into a $100 pot, or 333.33% of the pot. Anything smaller is a call. ## Nearby counts on both streets Use the rows below to see what the count next door looks like. A step of one out is about 2.17 points on the turn. Counts near 20: the chance by the river on the turn and on the flop | Outs | Turn, by the river | Flop, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [18](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/18-outs-turn.md) | 39.13% | 62.44% | | [19](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/19-outs-turn.md) | 41.30% | 65.03% | | 20 (this page) | 43.48% | 67.53% | - [20 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/20-outs-flop.md): 67.53% by the river. - [19 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/19-outs-turn.md): 41.30% on the river. ## The river is the last card One card remains, so the next-card and by-the-river figures match at 43.48%. Facing half the pot, you need 25.00% and hold a margin of +18.48 points, which is Call. ## Questions ### How likely is a hit with 20 outs on the turn? With 20 outs on the turn you hit on the river 43.48% of the time, about 43 of every 100 hands, because 20 of the 46 unseen cards are outs. The odds against are 1.3 : 1. ### What is the error of the rule of 2 at 20 outs? The rule of 2 gives 40% for 20 outs against an exact 43.48%, an error of -3.48 points. The shortcut sits below the true chance, so the exact figure is better for you. ### How many bet sizes can 20 outs on the turn pay for? At 43.48% on the river, you can call 11 of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of +18.48 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Call. The largest bet you can call is 333.33% of the pot, or $333.33 on a $100 pot. ### What is the effective count if some of the 20 outs are shared? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance on the river falls from 43.48% to 41.30%, and with 3 shared it falls to 36.96%, a loss of 6.52 points. The effective count is then 17 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit on the river from the turn is k / 46, where 46 is the number of unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 20 outs that is 20 / 46 = 43.48%. The next card is the river, so both chances are the same. The rule of 2 figure is 2 x k, here 40%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -3.48 points. Assumptions: every unseen card is equally likely, and no card is removed for an opponent's hand, so this is the chance to hit your outs, not your equity against a named hand. A call is paid in full, so the pot after it holds the pot plus two bets. Here the pot is $100. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [20 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/20-outs-flop.md): The same count with two cards to come. - [Pot odds for a 1.5x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/1-5x-pot.md): The equity a 1.5x-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md): The equity a third-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)