--- title: "3 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-turn.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-turn" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "Exact odds for 3 outs on the turn: 6.52% on the river. Compare the rule of 2 figure, then see which bets you can call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 3 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit Exact odds for 3 outs on the turn: 6.52% on the river. Compare the rule of 2 figure, then see which bets you can call. You have a 6.52% chance to hit on the river with 3 outs on the turn. The sections below show the count behind that figure, the draws that match it and the bets it can call. - Chance to hit on the river: 6.52% (3 outs, one card to come) - Odds against: 14.33 : 1 - Rule of 2 estimate: 6% (-0.52 points from the exact chance) - Unseen cards: 46 ## The count behind 3 outs on the turn Under one chance in five is thin. 6.52% on the river means the miss is the usual outcome, and the price has to reflect that. - Unseen cards: 46 - Your outs: 3 - Cards that miss: 43 - Chance on the river: 6.52% - Chance on the next card (the river): 6.52% - Odds against hitting: 14.33 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 2: 6% - Error of the rule of 2: -0.52 points - Chance on the river = k / u, with u = 46 unseen cards - For 3 outs: 3 / 46 = 6.52% 43 of the 46 unseen cards miss. A single deal picks one of 46 equally likely cards, which lands on an out 3 times in 46, or 6.52%. Being 0.52 points low, 6% still points the right way, but the exact 6.52% is the number to put against a bet. The adjusted rule only applies from the flop above 8 outs, so 3 outs on the turn use the plain rule of 2: 2 x 3 = 6%. ## Which holding has 3 outs? Common holding with this count: one overcard to top pair. This page tells you how often it gets there. Not every out is clean. Here is the chance once shared outs are removed: from 6.52% down to 0.00% when 3 are shared. 3 outs on the turn when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance on the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 3 | 6.52% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 2 | 4.35% | 2.17 points | | 2 | 1 | 2.17% | 4.35 points | | 3 | 0 | 0.00% | 6.52 points | ## The bets 3 outs can call on the turn Compare the columns: required equity on the left, margin in the middle, verdict at the end. With 3 outs you can call none of the 12 bet sizes. 3 outs on the turn against every bet size, with your chance on the river at 6.52% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | -10.14 points | Fold | | [1/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -13.48 points | Fold | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | -15.70 points | Fold | | 1/2 pot | 25.00% | -18.48 points | Fold | | [2/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/3-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -22.05 points | Fold | | 3/4 pot | 30.00% | -23.48 points | Fold | | full pot | 33.33% | -26.81 points | Fold | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -29.19 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -30.98 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -33.48 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -36.34 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -37.92 points | Fold | Stated as a share of the pot, the largest bet you can pay is 7.50%. On a $100 pot you can call up to $7.50. ## Nearby counts on both streets Neighboring counts help you judge a close draw. One out more or less shifts the chance by roughly 2.17 points on this street. Counts near 3: the chance by the river on the turn and on the flop | Outs | Turn, by the river | Flop, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [1](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/1-outs-turn.md) | 2.17% | 4.26% | | [2](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/2-outs-turn.md) | 4.35% | 8.42% | | 3 (this page) | 6.52% | 12.49% | | [4](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-turn.md) | 8.70% | 16.47% | | [5](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/5-outs-turn.md) | 10.87% | 20.35% | - [3 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-flop.md): 12.49% by the river. - [2 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/2-outs-turn.md): 4.35% on the river. - [4 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-turn.md): 8.70% on the river. ## The river is the last card You do not need a second view on the turn. The 6.52% chance is final, and against a half-pot price of 25.00% it leaves -18.48 points: Fold. ## Questions ### How often do 3 outs hit on the turn? With 3 outs on the turn you hit on the river 6.52% of the time, about 7 of every 100 hands, because 3 of the 46 unseen cards are outs. The odds against are 14.33 : 1. ### What does the rule of 2 say for a count of 3? The rule of 2 gives 6% for 3 outs against an exact 6.52%, an error of -0.52 points. The shortcut sits below the true chance, so the exact figure is better for you. ### How big a bet can I call with 3 outs on the turn? At 6.52% on the river, you can call none of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of -18.48 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Fold. The largest bet you can call is 7.50% of the pot, or $7.50 on a $100 pot. ### Does every one of the 3 outs count in full on the turn? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance on the river falls from 6.52% to 4.35%, and with 3 shared it falls to 0.00%, a loss of 6.52 points. The effective count is then 0 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit on the river from the turn is k / 46, where 46 is the number of unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 3 outs that is 3 / 46 = 6.52%. The next card is the river, so both chances are the same. The rule of 2 figure is 2 x k, here 6%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -0.52 points. The model gives every one of the 46 unseen cards the same chance and removes nothing for what a rival holds. It measures hitting an out, not winning the hand. Bets are priced on a $100 pot, and a call adds one bet to the pot. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [3 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-flop.md): The same count with two cards to come. - [Pot odds for a half-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/half-pot.md): The equity a half-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a 1.5x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/1-5x-pot.md): The equity a 1.5x-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)