--- title: "4 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-turn.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-turn" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "With 4 outs on the turn you hit on the river 8.70% of the time. Odds against, the shortcut error and a verdict for 12 bet sizes." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 4 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit With 4 outs on the turn you hit on the river 8.70% of the time. Odds against, the shortcut error and a verdict for 12 bet sizes. Counting 4 outs on the turn puts your chance on the river at 8.70%. This page turns that figure into odds, tests the rule of 2 against it and lines it up with 12 bet sizes. - Chance to hit on the river: 8.70% (4 outs, one card to come) - Odds against: 10.5 : 1 - Rule of 2 estimate: 8% (-0.70 points from the exact chance) - Unseen cards: 46 ## The count behind 4 outs on the turn Under one chance in five is thin. 8.70% on the river means the miss is the usual outcome, and the price has to reflect that. - Unseen cards: 46 - Your outs: 4 - Cards that miss: 42 - Chance on the river: 8.70% - Chance on the next card (the river): 8.70% - Odds against hitting: 10.5 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 2: 8% - Error of the rule of 2: -0.70 points - Chance on the river = k / u, with u = 46 unseen cards - For 4 outs: 4 / 46 = 8.70% No pairs to count here, just 4 helpful cards in a deck of 46 unseen ones. That is 8.70%, with 42 unhelpful cards making up the rest. Being 0.70 points low, 8% still points the right way, but the exact 8.70% is the number to put against a bet. 2 x 4 = 8% is all the shortcut asks of you with 4 outs on the turn. The adjusted rule is kept for flop counts above 8. ## Which holding has 4 outs? Common holding with this count: a gutshot straight draw. This page tells you how often it gets there. A shared out has a price: 2.17 points for the first, and 6.52 points in all with 3 shared. Subtract any shared outs before you compare with a bet. 4 outs on the turn when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance on the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 4 | 8.70% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 3 | 6.52% | 2.17 points | | 2 | 2 | 4.35% | 4.35 points | | 3 | 1 | 2.17% | 6.52 points | ## The bets 4 outs can call on the turn Each row compares your 8.70% chance with the equity a call needs. You can call none of the 12 bet sizes with 4 outs on the turn. 4 outs on the turn against every bet size, with your chance on the river at 8.70% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | -7.97 points | Fold | | [1/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -11.30 points | Fold | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | -13.53 points | Fold | | 1/2 pot | 25.00% | -16.30 points | Fold | | [2/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/4-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -19.88 points | Fold | | 3/4 pot | 30.00% | -21.30 points | Fold | | full pot | 33.33% | -24.64 points | Fold | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -27.02 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -28.80 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -31.30 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -34.16 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -35.75 points | Fold | The line between call and fold is a bet of 10.53% of the pot, or $10.53 on a $100 pot. Stay at or under it and the draw pays for itself. ## Nearby counts on both streets Compare 4 outs with the counts on either side. Each step is worth near 2.17 points on the turn, and the other street is shown next to it. Counts near 4: the chance by the river on the turn and on the flop | Outs | Turn, by the river | Flop, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [2](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/2-outs-turn.md) | 4.35% | 8.42% | | [3](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-turn.md) | 6.52% | 12.49% | | 4 (this page) | 8.70% | 16.47% | | [5](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/5-outs-turn.md) | 10.87% | 20.35% | | [6](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-turn.md) | 13.04% | 24.14% | - [4 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-flop.md): 16.47% by the river. - [3 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/3-outs-turn.md): 6.52% on the river. - [5 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/5-outs-turn.md): 10.87% on the river. ## The river is the last card Nothing is hidden behind a second card here. Your 8.70% is the full draw, and a half-pot bet asks for 25.00%, which makes the verdict Fold. ## Questions ### How often do 4 outs hit on the turn? With 4 outs on the turn you hit on the river 8.70% of the time, about 9 of every 100 hands, because 4 of the 46 unseen cards are outs. The odds against are 10.5 : 1. ### What is the error of the rule of 2 at 4 outs? The rule of 2 gives 8% for 4 outs against an exact 8.70%, an error of -0.70 points. The shortcut sits below the true chance, so the exact figure is better for you. ### Which bets can 4 outs call on the turn? At 8.70% on the river, you can call none of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of -16.30 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Fold. The largest bet you can call is 10.53% of the pot, or $10.53 on a $100 pot. ### Should I count every out when a rival could be drawing too, with 4 outs? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance on the river falls from 8.70% to 6.52%, and with 3 shared it falls to 2.17%, a loss of 6.52 points. The effective count is then 1 out. ## How this is computed The chance to hit on the river from the turn is k / 46, where 46 is the number of unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 4 outs that is 4 / 46 = 8.70%. The next card is the river, so both chances are the same. The rule of 2 figure is 2 x k, here 8%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -0.70 points. Two assumptions sit behind the page. First, all 46 unseen cards are equally likely, with no cards taken out for an opponent. Second, each bet is called in full on a $100 pot, so you pay one bet to play for a pot that holds the pot and both bets. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [4 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-flop.md): The same count with two cards to come. - [Pot odds for a two-thirds-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-thirds-pot.md): The equity a two-thirds-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a 2x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/2x-pot.md): The equity a 2x-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)