--- title: "6 Outs on the Flop: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-flop.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-flop" last_updated: "2026-10-20" type: "reference" summary: "With 6 outs on the flop you hit by the river 24.14% of the time. Odds against, the shortcut error and a verdict for 12 bet sizes." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 6 Outs on the Flop: Odds to Hit With 6 outs on the flop you hit by the river 24.14% of the time. Odds against, the shortcut error and a verdict for 12 bet sizes. A count of 6 on the flop is worth 24.14% by the river. Use this page to read that as odds against, to see how the rule of 4 copes with it and to check which bets earn a call. - Chance to hit by the river: 24.14% (6 outs, two cards to come) - Chance on the next card: 12.77% - Odds against by the river: 3.14 : 1 - Rule of 4 estimate: 24% (-0.14 points from the exact chance) ## The count behind 6 outs on the flop One hit in about 4.1 tries is what 24.14% means. It is neither a favorite nor a long shot, so the bet you face decides the answer. - Unseen cards: 47 - Your outs: 6 - Cards that miss: 41 - Pairs of cards with no out: 820 - Pairs with at least one out: 261 - Chance by the river: 24.14% - Chance on the next card: 12.77% - Odds against hitting: 3.14 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 4: 24% - Error of the rule of 4: -0.14 points - Chance by the river = 1 - C(u - k, 2) / C(u, 2), with u = 47 unseen cards - For 6 outs: 1 - C(41, 2) / C(47, 2) = 1 - 820 / 1,081 = 24.14% - Next card = 6 / 47 = 12.77% The draw fails only when the turn and the river both miss. That covers 820 of the 1,081 pairs, so it lands in the other 261, or 24.14%. With 6 outs the rule of 4 stays near the truth: 24% estimated, 24.14% exact, 0.14 points apart. No adjustment is needed on the flop with 6 outs. The plain rule of 4 gives 4 x 6 = 24%. ## Which holding has 6 outs? Two overcards is the hand to picture here: it has exactly 6 outs, and every figure below applies to it directly. Use the effective count, not the raw one, when a rival could be drawing too. Losing 3 outs to overlap moves 24.14% down to 12.49%. 6 outs on the flop when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance by the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 6 | 24.14% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 5 | 20.35% | 3.79 points | | 2 | 4 | 16.47% | 7.68 points | | 3 | 3 | 12.49% | 11.66 points | ## The bets 6 outs can call on the flop Draw the line at 24.14%: any bet that needs less equity than that is a call. Here that covers 3 of the 12 bet sizes. 6 outs on the flop against every bet size, with your chance by the river at 24.14% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +7.48 points | Call | | [1/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +4.14 points | Call | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | +1.92 points | Call | | [1/2 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | -0.86 points | Fold | | [2/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -4.43 points | Fold | | [3/4 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -5.86 points | Fold | | [full pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/6-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -9.19 points | Fold | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -11.57 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -13.36 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -15.86 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -18.71 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -20.30 points | Fold | Break-even for the call falls at a bet of $46.69 into a $100 pot, or 46.69% of the pot. Anything smaller is a call. ## Nearby counts on both streets Adding or losing one out moves the chance by about 3.70 points on the flop. Here are the counts next to 6, with the other street alongside. Counts near 6: the chance by the river on the flop and on the turn | Outs | Flop, by the river | Turn, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [4](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/4-outs-flop.md) | 16.47% | 8.70% | | [5](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/5-outs-flop.md) | 20.35% | 10.87% | | 6 (this page) | 24.14% | 13.04% | | [7](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-flop.md) | 27.84% | 15.22% | | [8](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md) | 31.45% | 17.39% | - [6 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-turn.md): 13.04% on the river. - [5 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/5-outs-flop.md): 20.35% by the river. - [7 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-flop.md): 27.84% by the river. ## When a bet buys only one card Check the one-card case before you call a flop bet. 12.77% against 25.00% is -12.23 points for 6 outs, and that is Fold against a half-pot bet. Drop to the next-card chance and the number of calls goes from 3 to 0 out of 12. ## Questions ### How good is a draw with 6 outs on the flop? With 6 outs on the flop you hit by the river 24.14% of the time, about 24 of every 100 hands, and on the next card 12.77%. The odds against hitting by the river are 3.14 : 1, since 820 of 1,081 pairs of unseen cards hold no out. ### How accurate is the rule of 4 for 6 outs? The rule of 4 gives 24% for 6 outs against an exact 24.14%, an error of -0.14 points. That is close enough to use at the table. ### Are 6 outs on the flop enough to call a half-pot bet? At 24.14% by the river, you can call 3 of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of -0.86 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Fold. The largest bet you can call is 46.69% of the pot, or $46.69 on a $100 pot. ### Should I count every out when a rival could be drawing too, with 6 outs? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance by the river falls from 24.14% to 20.35%, and with 3 shared it falls to 12.49%, a loss of 11.66 points. The effective count is then 3 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit by the river from the flop is 1 - C(u - k, 2) / C(u, 2), where u = 47 unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 6 outs that is 1 - 820 / 1,081 = 24.14%. The chance on the next card is k / 47, here 12.77%. The rule of 4 figure is 4 x k, here 24%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -0.14 points. The chance counts only the 47 cards you cannot see, each equally likely. It ignores what an opponent may hold and any money still to be won. Verdicts compare your chance with the bet over the pot plus two bets, on a $100 pot. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [6 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-turn.md): The same count with one card to come. - [Pot odds for a pot-size bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/pot-size.md): The equity a pot-size call needs. - [Pot odds for a 4x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/4x-pot.md): The equity a 4x-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)