--- title: "7 Outs on the Flop: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-flop.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-flop" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "Exact odds for 7 outs on the flop: 27.84% by the river. Compare the rule of 4 figure, then see which bets you can call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 7 Outs on the Flop: Odds to Hit Exact odds for 7 outs on the flop: 27.84% by the river. Compare the rule of 4 figure, then see which bets you can call. 27.84% is the exact chance by the river when you count 7 outs on the flop. Read on for the odds against, the shortcut figure and a full table of bet sizes with a call or fold verdict. - Chance to hit by the river: 27.84% (7 outs, two cards to come) - Chance on the next card: 14.89% - Odds against by the river: 2.59 : 1 - Rule of 4 estimate: 28% (+0.16 points from the exact chance) ## The count behind 7 outs on the flop Between one chance in five and two in five, 27.84% is a draw worth playing when the bet is not oversized. - Unseen cards: 47 - Your outs: 7 - Cards that miss: 40 - Pairs of cards with no out: 780 - Pairs with at least one out: 301 - Chance by the river: 27.84% - Chance on the next card: 14.89% - Odds against hitting: 2.59 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 4: 28% - Error of the rule of 4: +0.16 points - Chance by the river = 1 - C(u - k, 2) / C(u, 2), with u = 47 unseen cards - For 7 outs: 1 - C(40, 2) / C(47, 2) = 1 - 780 / 1,081 = 27.84% - Next card = 7 / 47 = 14.89% Of the 1,081 pairs that two cards can make from the 47 unseen, 780 contain only misses. The other 301 hold at least one out, which is 27.84% of the pairs. The quick estimate of 28% and the exact 27.84% nearly agree, separated by 0.16 points. The adjusted rule only applies from the flop above 8 outs, so 7 outs on the flop use the plain rule of 4: 4 x 7 = 28%. ## Which holding has 7 outs? This count has no one textbook draw behind it. It is the total you get after adding up several draws and checking for overlap. An out that also completes a better hand for a rival is a poor out. With one shared out among your 7 outs, the chance by the river falls from 27.84% to 24.14%, a loss of 3.70 points. 7 outs on the flop when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance by the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 7 | 27.84% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 6 | 24.14% | 3.70 points | | 2 | 5 | 20.35% | 7.49 points | | 3 | 4 | 16.47% | 11.38 points | ## The bets 7 outs can call on the flop Draw the line at 27.84%: any bet that needs less equity than that is a call. Here that covers 4 of the 12 bet sizes. 7 outs on the flop against every bet size, with your chance by the river at 27.84% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +11.18 points | Call | | 1/3 pot | 20.00% | +7.84 points | Call | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | +5.62 points | Call | | 1/2 pot | 25.00% | +2.84 points | Call | | [2/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/7-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -0.73 points | Fold | | [3/4 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/7-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | -2.16 points | Fold | | [full pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/7-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -5.49 points | Fold | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -7.87 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -9.66 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -12.16 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -15.01 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -16.60 points | Fold | Work the price backward from 27.84% and you find a limit of 62.84% of the pot: $62.84 into a $100 pot. ## Nearby counts on both streets Counts near 7 sit side by side below, on the flop and on the other street. One out is worth around 3.61 points on this page. Counts near 7: the chance by the river on the flop and on the turn | Outs | Flop, by the river | Turn, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [5](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/5-outs-flop.md) | 20.35% | 10.87% | | [6](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-flop.md) | 24.14% | 13.04% | | 7 (this page) | 27.84% | 15.22% | | [8](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md) | 31.45% | 17.39% | | [9](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-flop.md) | 34.97% | 19.57% | - [7 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-turn.md): 15.22% on the river. - [6 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-flop.md): 24.14% by the river. - [8 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md): 31.45% by the river. ## When a bet buys only one card Think about what the bet buys. If you must call again on the turn, only 14.89% counts for the flop call. A half-pot price of 25.00% leaves -10.11 points, which is a fold. Drop to the next-card chance and the number of calls goes from 4 to 0 out of 12. ## Questions ### How often do 7 outs hit on the flop? With 7 outs on the flop you hit by the river 27.84% of the time, about 28 of every 100 hands, and on the next card 14.89%. The odds against hitting by the river are 2.59 : 1, since 780 of 1,081 pairs of unseen cards hold no out. ### How does the quick rule compare with the exact chance for 7 outs? The rule of 4 gives 28% for 7 outs against an exact 27.84%, an error of +0.16 points. That is close enough to use at the table. ### How big a bet can I call with 7 outs on the flop? At 27.84% by the river, you can call 4 of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of +2.84 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Call. The largest bet you can call is 62.84% of the pot, or $62.84 on a $100 pot. ### How many points do I lose if outs are shared with a better hand? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance by the river falls from 27.84% to 24.14%, and with 3 shared it falls to 16.47%, a loss of 11.38 points. The effective count is then 4 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit by the river from the flop is 1 - C(u - k, 2) / C(u, 2), where u = 47 unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 7 outs that is 1 - 780 / 1,081 = 27.84%. The chance on the next card is k / 47, here 14.89%. The rule of 4 figure is 4 x k, here 28%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here +0.16 points. Assumptions: every unseen card is equally likely, and no card is removed for an opponent's hand, so this is the chance to hit your outs, not your equity against a named hand. A call is paid in full, so the pot after it holds the pot plus two bets. Here the pot is $100. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [7 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-turn.md): The same count with one card to come. - [Pot odds for a 1.25x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/1-25x-pot.md): The equity a 1.25x-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a quarter-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/quarter-pot.md): The equity a quarter-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)