--- title: "8 Outs on the Flop: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop" last_updated: "2026-10-20" type: "reference" summary: "8 outs, flop: you hit by the river 31.45% of the time, 2.18 : 1 against, with the rule of 4 checked and every bet size priced." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 8 Outs on the Flop: Odds to Hit 8 outs, flop: you hit by the river 31.45% of the time, 2.18 : 1 against, with the rule of 4 checked and every bet size priced. Holding 8 outs once the flop is dealt gives you a 31.45% chance by the river. Below you will find what that means as odds, how far the quick rule drifts and which bet sizes you can call. - Chance to hit by the river: 31.45% (8 outs, two cards to come) - Chance on the next card: 17.02% - Odds against by the river: 2.18 : 1 - Rule of 4 estimate: 32% (+0.55 points from the exact chance) ## The count behind 8 outs on the flop A 31.45% chance gives the draw real weight. You will miss 68.55% of the time, yet a bet of up to 84.79% of the pot still costs less than your chance. - Unseen cards: 47 - Your outs: 8 - Cards that miss: 39 - Pairs of cards with no out: 741 - Pairs with at least one out: 340 - Chance by the river: 31.45% - Chance on the next card: 17.02% - Odds against hitting: 2.18 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 4: 32% - Error of the rule of 4: +0.55 points - Chance by the river = 1 - C(u - k, 2) / C(u, 2), with u = 47 unseen cards - For 8 outs: 1 - C(39, 2) / C(47, 2) = 1 - 741 / 1,081 = 31.45% - Next card = 8 / 47 = 17.02% 39 of the 47 unseen cards are blanks. Two blanks can be dealt in 741 ways, against 1,081 ways to deal any two cards, which leaves 31.45% for the draw. A gap of 0.55 points between 32% and 31.45% is small. The shortcut does its job with this count. The correction for big counts belongs to the flop above 8 outs. Here the plain figure, 4 x 8 = 32%, is the one to use. ## Which holding has 8 outs? An open-ended straight draw fits this count exactly, with 8 outs. Memorizing counts like this lets you read the chance straight from the table on this page. Not every out is clean. Here is the chance once shared outs are removed: from 31.45% down to 20.35% when 3 are shared. 8 outs on the flop when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance by the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 8 | 31.45% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 7 | 27.84% | 3.61 points | | 2 | 6 | 24.14% | 7.31 points | | 3 | 5 | 20.35% | 11.10 points | ## The bets 8 outs can call on the flop Read the table from the top: small bets need little equity, and the requirement climbs with the bet. Your 31.45% clears 6 of the 12 bet sizes. 8 outs on the flop against every bet size, with your chance by the river at 31.45% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +14.79 points | Call | | [1/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | +11.45 points | Call | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | +9.23 points | Call | | [1/2 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-half-pot.md) | 25.00% | +6.45 points | Call | | [2/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | +2.88 points | Call | | [3/4 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-three-quarter-pot.md) | 30.00% | +1.45 points | Call | | [full pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/8-outs-flop-vs-pot-size.md) | 33.33% | -1.88 points | Fold | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -4.26 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -6.05 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -8.55 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -11.40 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -12.99 points | Fold | The biggest bet you can call is 84.79% of the pot, which is $84.79 on a $100 pot. ## Nearby counts on both streets Compare 8 outs with the counts on either side. Each step is worth near 3.52 points on the flop, and the other street is shown next to it. Counts near 8: the chance by the river on the flop and on the turn | Outs | Flop, by the river | Turn, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [6](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-flop.md) | 24.14% | 13.04% | | [7](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-flop.md) | 27.84% | 15.22% | | 8 (this page) | 31.45% | 17.39% | | [9](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-flop.md) | 34.97% | 19.57% | | [10](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-flop.md) | 38.39% | 21.74% | - [8 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-turn.md): 17.39% on the river. - [7 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-flop.md): 27.84% by the river. - [9 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-flop.md): 34.97% by the river. ## When a bet buys only one card The by-the-river figure of 31.45% assumes you see both cards. If a turn bet follows, use 17.02%: against a half-pot price of 25.00%, that margin is -7.98 points and the verdict is Fold. 1 of 12 sizes survives the one-card test, where the two-card test passed 6. ## Questions ### What percent chance does a count of 8 give you on the flop? With 8 outs on the flop you hit by the river 31.45% of the time, about 31 of every 100 hands, and on the next card 17.02%. The odds against hitting by the river are 2.18 : 1, since 741 of 1,081 pairs of unseen cards hold no out. ### Can I trust the shortcut for 8 outs on the flop? The rule of 4 gives 32% for 8 outs against an exact 31.45%, an error of +0.55 points. That is close enough to use at the table. ### What price can a draw with 8 outs on the flop afford? At 31.45% by the river, you can call 6 of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of +6.45 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Call. The largest bet you can call is 84.79% of the pot, or $84.79 on a $100 pot. ### What happens to the chance when 8 outs are not all clean? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance by the river falls from 31.45% to 27.84%, and with 3 shared it falls to 20.35%, a loss of 11.10 points. The effective count is then 5 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit by the river from the flop is 1 - C(u - k, 2) / C(u, 2), where u = 47 unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 8 outs that is 1 - 741 / 1,081 = 31.45%. The chance on the next card is k / 47, here 17.02%. The rule of 4 figure is 4 x k, here 32%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here +0.55 points. Assumptions: every unseen card is equally likely, and no card is removed for an opponent's hand, so this is the chance to hit your outs, not your equity against a named hand. A call is paid in full, so the pot after it holds the pot plus two bets. Here the pot is $100. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [8 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-turn.md): The same count with one card to come. - [Pot odds for a 1.5x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/1-5x-pot.md): The equity a 1.5x-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md): The equity a third-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)