--- title: "8 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-turn.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-turn" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "How often do 8 outs hit on the turn? 17.39% on the river. Odds against, shortcut error and the bet sizes you can call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 8 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit How often do 8 outs hit on the turn? 17.39% on the river. Odds against, shortcut error and the bet sizes you can call. A count of 8 on the turn is worth 17.39% on the river. Use this page to read that as odds against, to see how the rule of 2 copes with it and to check which bets earn a call. - Chance to hit on the river: 17.39% (8 outs, one card to come) - Odds against: 4.75 : 1 - Rule of 2 estimate: 16% (-1.39 points from the exact chance) - Unseen cards: 46 ## The count behind 8 outs on the turn Think of 17.39% as a long shot that pays when the price is right. At 4.75 : 1 against, you need the pot to be laying a generous price. - Unseen cards: 46 - Your outs: 8 - Cards that miss: 38 - Chance on the river: 17.39% - Chance on the next card (the river): 17.39% - Odds against hitting: 4.75 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 2: 16% - Error of the rule of 2: -1.39 points - Chance on the river = k / u, with u = 46 unseen cards - For 8 outs: 8 / 46 = 17.39% One card is left to come out of 46 unseen. 8 of them are outs and 38 miss, so the chance is 8 divided by 46, which is 17.39%. 16% from the quick rule sits 1.39 points under the true 17.39%, so the shortcut is pessimistic here. Leave the adjusted rule for bigger flop draws. With 8 outs on the turn, the plain rule of 2 figure is 16%. ## Which holding has 8 outs? This count has a familiar home: an open-ended straight draw. It is worth knowing, because a quick look at the board often tells you the count. Use the effective count, not the raw one, when a rival could be drawing too. Losing 3 outs to overlap moves 17.39% down to 10.87%. 8 outs on the turn when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance on the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 8 | 17.39% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 7 | 15.22% | 2.17 points | | 2 | 6 | 13.04% | 4.35 points | | 3 | 5 | 10.87% | 6.52 points | ## The bets 8 outs can call on the turn Read the table from the top: small bets need little equity, and the requirement climbs with the bet. Your 17.39% clears 1 of the 12 bet sizes. 8 outs on the turn against every bet size, with your chance on the river at 17.39% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +0.72 points | Call | | 1/3 pot | 20.00% | -2.61 points | Fold | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | -4.83 points | Fold | | 1/2 pot | 25.00% | -7.61 points | Fold | | 2/3 pot | 28.57% | -11.18 points | Fold | | 3/4 pot | 30.00% | -12.61 points | Fold | | full pot | 33.33% | -15.94 points | Fold | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -18.32 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -20.11 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -22.61 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -25.47 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -27.05 points | Fold | Past 26.67% of the pot, the price beats your 17.39%. On a $100 pot that line is $26.67. ## Nearby counts on both streets Not sure whether to count one more out? It changes the chance by about 2.17 points. The table shows both streets for the counts around 8. Counts near 8: the chance by the river on the turn and on the flop | Outs | Turn, by the river | Flop, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [6](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/6-outs-turn.md) | 13.04% | 24.14% | | [7](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-turn.md) | 15.22% | 27.84% | | 8 (this page) | 17.39% | 31.45% | | [9](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-turn.md) | 19.57% | 34.97% | | [10](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-turn.md) | 21.74% | 38.39% | - [8 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md): 31.45% by the river. - [7 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-turn.md): 15.22% on the river. - [9 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-turn.md): 19.57% on the river. ## The river is the last card With 8 outs and one card to come, a single number answers both questions: 17.39%. Against the 25.00% that a half-pot call needs, the margin is -7.61 points. ## Questions ### How often do 8 outs hit on the turn? With 8 outs on the turn you hit on the river 17.39% of the time, about 17 of every 100 hands, because 8 of the 46 unseen cards are outs. The odds against are 4.75 : 1. ### How does the quick rule compare with the exact chance for 8 outs? The rule of 2 gives 16% for 8 outs against an exact 17.39%, an error of -1.39 points. The shortcut sits below the true chance, so the exact figure is better for you. ### How many bet sizes can 8 outs on the turn pay for? At 17.39% on the river, you can call 1 of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of -7.61 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Fold. The largest bet you can call is 26.67% of the pot, or $26.67 on a $100 pot. ### Does every one of the 8 outs count in full on the turn? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance on the river falls from 17.39% to 15.22%, and with 3 shared it falls to 10.87%, a loss of 6.52 points. The effective count is then 5 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit on the river from the turn is k / 46, where 46 is the number of unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 8 outs that is 8 / 46 = 17.39%. The next card is the river, so both chances are the same. The rule of 2 figure is 2 x k, here 16%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -1.39 points. Two assumptions sit behind the page. First, all 46 unseen cards are equally likely, with no cards taken out for an opponent. Second, each bet is called in full on a $100 pot, so you pay one bet to play for a pot that holds the pot and both bets. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [8 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-flop.md): The same count with two cards to come. - [Pot odds for a 1.5x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/1-5x-pot.md): The equity a 1.5x-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a third-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/third-pot.md): The equity a third-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)