--- title: "9 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit" url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-turn.md" canonical_url: "https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-turn" last_updated: "2026-10-23" type: "reference" summary: "Exact odds for 9 outs on the turn: 19.57% on the river. Compare the rule of 2 figure, then see which bets you can call." related: ["https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md"] --- # 9 Outs on the Turn: Odds to Hit Exact odds for 9 outs on the turn: 19.57% on the river. Compare the rule of 2 figure, then see which bets you can call. Holding 9 outs once the turn is dealt gives you a 19.57% chance on the river. Below you will find what that means as odds, how far the quick rule drifts and which bet sizes you can call. - Chance to hit on the river: 19.57% (9 outs, one card to come) - Odds against: 4.11 : 1 - Rule of 2 estimate: 18% (-1.57 points from the exact chance) - Unseen cards: 46 ## The count behind 9 outs on the turn This count leaves you empty-handed 80.43% of the time. A 19.57% chance can still be worth chasing, but only when the bet you face is a small fraction of the pot. - Unseen cards: 46 - Your outs: 9 - Cards that miss: 37 - Chance on the river: 19.57% - Chance on the next card (the river): 19.57% - Odds against hitting: 4.11 : 1 - Estimate from the rule of 2: 18% - Error of the rule of 2: -1.57 points - Chance on the river = k / u, with u = 46 unseen cards - For 9 outs: 9 / 46 = 19.57% One card is left to come out of 46 unseen. 9 of them are outs and 37 miss, so the chance is 9 divided by 46, which is 19.57%. Multiplying 9 by 2 gives 18%, short of the exact 19.57% by 1.57 points. The shortcut under-reads the draw a little more with each extra out. Leave the adjusted rule for bigger flop draws. With 9 outs on the turn, the plain rule of 2 figure is 18%. ## Which holding has 9 outs? One standard source of this count is a flush draw. Count the cards carefully at the table, because outs that also help a rival do not count in full. Not every out is clean. Here is the chance once shared outs are removed: from 19.57% down to 13.04% when 3 are shared. 9 outs on the turn when some outs are shared with a better hand | Shared outs | Effective outs | Chance on the river | Chance given up | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 | 9 | 19.57% | 0.00 points | | 1 | 8 | 17.39% | 2.17 points | | 2 | 7 | 15.22% | 4.35 points | | 3 | 6 | 13.04% | 6.52 points | ## The bets 9 outs can call on the turn A call is right when your chance beats what the bet asks of you. At 19.57%, that holds for 1 of the 12 bet sizes in the table. 9 outs on the turn against every bet size, with your chance on the river at 19.57% | Bet size | Equity a call needs | Margin over it | Verdict | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1/4 pot | 16.67% | +2.90 points | Call | | [1/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-turn-vs-third-pot.md) | 20.00% | -0.43 points | Fold | | 2/5 pot | 22.22% | -2.66 points | Fold | | 1/2 pot | 25.00% | -5.43 points | Fold | | [2/3 pot](https://georgelipoker.com/call-or-fold/9-outs-turn-vs-two-thirds-pot.md) | 28.57% | -9.01 points | Fold | | 3/4 pot | 30.00% | -10.43 points | Fold | | full pot | 33.33% | -13.77 points | Fold | | 1.25x pot | 35.71% | -16.15 points | Fold | | 1.5x pot | 37.50% | -17.93 points | Fold | | 2x pot | 40.00% | -20.43 points | Fold | | 3x pot | 42.86% | -23.29 points | Fold | | 4x pot | 44.44% | -24.88 points | Fold | The biggest bet you can call is 32.14% of the pot, which is $32.14 on a $100 pot. ## Nearby counts on both streets A single out is worth about 2.17 points here. The table lists the counts around 9 on both streets so you can see how the other street compares. Counts near 9: the chance by the river on the turn and on the flop | Outs | Turn, by the river | Flop, by the river | | --- | --- | --- | | [7](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/7-outs-turn.md) | 15.22% | 27.84% | | [8](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-turn.md) | 17.39% | 31.45% | | 9 (this page) | 19.57% | 34.97% | | [10](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-turn.md) | 21.74% | 38.39% | | [11](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/11-outs-turn.md) | 23.91% | 41.72% | - [9 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-flop.md): 34.97% by the river. - [8 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/8-outs-turn.md): 17.39% on the river. - [10 outs on the turn](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/10-outs-turn.md): 21.74% on the river. ## The river is the last card You do not need a second view on the turn. The 19.57% chance is final, and against a half-pot price of 25.00% it leaves -5.43 points: Fold. ## Questions ### What percent chance does a count of 9 give you on the turn? With 9 outs on the turn you hit on the river 19.57% of the time, about 20 of every 100 hands, because 9 of the 46 unseen cards are outs. The odds against are 4.11 : 1. ### Can I trust the shortcut for 9 outs on the turn? The rule of 2 gives 18% for 9 outs against an exact 19.57%, an error of -1.57 points. The shortcut sits below the true chance, so the exact figure is better for you. ### What is the largest bet worth calling with a count of 9 on the turn? At 19.57% on the river, you can call 1 of the 12 bet sizes. A half-pot bet needs 25.00%, a margin of -5.43 points, so against half the pot the verdict is Fold. The largest bet you can call is 32.14% of the pot, or $32.14 on a $100 pot. ### How many points do I lose if outs are shared with a better hand? Take them off the count first. With one shared out the chance on the river falls from 19.57% to 17.39%, and with 3 shared it falls to 13.04%, a loss of 6.52 points. The effective count is then 6 outs. ## How this is computed The chance to hit on the river from the turn is k / 46, where 46 is the number of unseen cards and k is your effective outs. For 9 outs that is 9 / 46 = 19.57%. The next card is the river, so both chances are the same. The rule of 2 figure is 2 x k, here 18%, and its error is that figure minus the exact chance in percentage points, here -1.57 points. Read the figures as a card count. All 46 unseen cards stay in, including any your opponent holds, so the figures describe your outs, not a matchup. Bets are called in full against a $100 pot with no extra money assumed. Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library. ## Related pages - [Outs calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/outs-calculator.md): Enter your own count and street. - [Pot odds calculator](https://georgelipoker.com/tools/pot-odds-calculator.md): Enter a pot and a bet to see the equity a call needs. - [Outs and odds to hit](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md): The chance to hit for every count on both streets. - [9 outs on the flop](https://georgelipoker.com/outs/9-outs-flop.md): The same count with two cards to come. - [Pot odds for a 2x-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/2x-pot.md): The equity a 2x-pot call needs. - [Pot odds for a two-fifths-pot bet](https://georgelipoker.com/pot-odds/two-fifths-pot.md): The equity a two-fifths-pot call needs. - [Hand equity](https://georgelipoker.com/equity.md): Your chance to win against a named hand. ## Related - [Outs and Odds to Hit by Street](https://georgelipoker.com/outs.md)