Verdict
Fold
10 outs, turn, two-thirds-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the riverone card to come21.74%
- Equity the call needs$66.67 into a pot of $233.3328.57%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price-6.83 points
What the numbers say
This one leans toward folding. You need 28.57%, you have 21.74%, and the 6.83-point difference is too wide to ignore.
Counts like 10 outs often come from a mix of draws. Of 46 unseen cards, 10 help, or 21.74% on one card.
A $100 pot, step by step
- The pot before betting$100
- Bet$66.67
- Your call$66.67
- Pot with your call in$233.33
- You can win on a hit$166.67
- You lose on a miss$66.67
- Probability of a hit21.74%
- Average value of the call-$15.94
- Equity needed to break even28.57%
- Margin, to four decimals-6.8323 points
- Fractional outs at the price13.14 outs
- Outs to spare, exactly-3.14 outs
Assume the whole pot goes to you when you hit, the call is lost when you miss, and nothing more is bet. Calling then loses $15.94 on average: $36.23 from hits, minus $52.17 from misses, -0.239 per dollar called.
Odds say the same thing. Hitting is 3.6 : 1 against, and the pot lays 2.5 : 1.
Counting the pot without your call makes the price look like 40.00%, when the real price is 28.57%. On that mistaken price the margin would read -18.2609 points; on 66.67%, the bet over the starting pot, it would read -44.9275 points.
Implied odds that would change the answer
Implied odds are the way to close the gap. You need $73.33 more on later streets after hitting, which is 1.10 times the call you make.
The call starts to work at 14 outs, where the chance is 30.43%. Your 10 outs fall 4 outs below that.
| Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 28.57% | -6.83 points | -$15.94 | Fold |
| $50 | 23.53% | -1.79 points | -$5.07 | Fold |
| $100 | 20.00% | +1.74 points | +$5.80 | Call |
| $250 | 13.79% | +7.95 points | +$38.41 | Call |
| $500 | 9.09% | +12.65 points | +$92.75 | Call |
What the flop would have given you
The turn card has already fallen, and a draw that hit 38.39% from the flop is down to 21.74%. That drop of 16.65 points is why the same bet can be a call on the flop and a fold here.
| Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flop, two cards to come | 38.39% | +9.8190 points | +$22.91 | Call |
| Turn, one card to come | 21.74% | -6.8323 points | -$15.94 | Fold |
One out more or less
Here are the neighbors of 10 outs, priced against the same 28.57%. One more out lifts your chance by about 2.17 points.
| Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 outs | 17.39% | -11.18 points | Fold |
| 9 outs | 19.57% | -9.01 points | Fold |
| 10 outs, this page | 21.74% | -6.83 points | Fold |
| 11 outs | 23.91% | -4.66 points | Fold |
| 12 outs | 26.09% | -2.48 points | Fold |
The draw across every bet size
Bigger bets ask for more equity while your chance stays at 21.74%. Here is every bet size against the same draw, with the row for this page marked.
The largest bet this draw can call on the turn is 0.38 times the pot ($38.46 on a $100 pot). 10 outs call 2 of the 12 bet sizes listed.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +5.07 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +1.74 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -0.48 points | Fold |
| half-pot | 25.00% | -3.26 points | Fold |
| two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -6.83 points | Fold |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -8.26 points | Fold |
| pot-size | 33.33% | -11.59 points | Fold |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -13.98 points | Fold |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -15.76 points | Fold |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | -18.26 points | Fold |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -21.12 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -22.71 points | Fold |
How this is computed
The number is exact rather than estimated. 10 of the 46 cards that could come are outs, which is 21.74%.
These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $66.67 of a $233.33 pot (28.57%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 46 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Call or fold with 10 outs on the turn against a bet of two thirds of the pot?
Verdict: fold. A two-thirds-pot bet asks for 28.57% and you have 21.74%, a margin of -6.83 points. For a $66.67 call into a $100 pot, with no later bets and the whole pot won on a hit, the average is -$15.94.
What is the minimum number of outs for a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn?
Against 28.57%, the first count that works on the turn is 14, at 30.43%. At 13 the chance is 28.26%, too low. Compared with that threshold, your 10 outs are 4 below.
How many cards should you count when a two-thirds-pot bet arrives on the turn?
Count the river card only. 21.74% is the full chance and the price is 28.57%, so the verdict is fold with a gap of 6.83 points. Nothing else is left to come.
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