Verdict
Fold
11 outs, turn, three-quarter-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the riverone card to come23.91%
- Equity the call needs$75 into a pot of $25030.00%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price-6.09 points
Your chance and the price
Your 23.91% chance falls below the 30.00% price by 6.09 points. The shortfall is real, and the call loses money on average.
You will reach 11 outs by adding up separate draws. With 46 cards unseen, the next card helps 23.91% of the time.
The $100 pot example
- Pot before the bet$100
- Size of the bet$75
- Chips you put in$75
- Pot with your call in$250
- Net gain when you hit$175
- Net loss when you miss$75
- Your chance to hit23.91%
- Expected value of a call-$15.22
- Equity needed to break even30.00%
- Margin, to four decimals-6.0870 points
- Fractional outs at the price13.80 outs
- Outs above the price-2.80 outs
Over many identical spots, with the whole pot won on every hit, the call lost on every miss and no extra betting, calling loses $15.22 on average. Hits bring in $41.85, misses cost $57.07, and the ratio is -0.203 per dollar called.
In odds, you face 3.18 : 1 against you and the pot pays 2.33 : 1.
Counting the pot without your call makes the price look like 42.86%, when the real price is 30.00%. On that mistaken price the margin would read -18.9441 points; on 75.00%, the bet over the starting pot, it would read -51.0870 points.
What implied odds would have to do
With 23.91% to hit, break-even sits $63.64 higher than the pot shows. Put another way, later bets must add 0.85 times your call.
14 outs is the threshold against a three-quarter-pot bet on the turn, a chance of 30.43%. That is 3 more than your 11.
| Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 30.00% | -6.09 points | -$15.22 | Fold |
| $50 | 25.00% | -1.09 points | -$3.26 | Fold |
| $100 | 21.43% | +2.48 points | +$8.70 | Call |
| $250 | 15.00% | +8.91 points | +$44.57 | Call |
| $500 | 10.00% | +13.91 points | +$104.35 | Call |
One card to come instead of two
Only the river remains, so there is just one number: 23.91%. For reference, the same draw on the flop was 41.72%, 17.81 points higher, which against 30.00% is a call.
| Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flop, two cards to come | 41.72% | +11.7206 points | +$29.30 | Call |
| Turn, one card to come | 23.91% | -6.0870 points | -$15.22 | Fold |
One out more or less
Draws close to yours, on the same street and against the same bet: the price is fixed at 30.00%, and each out moves the chance about 2.17 points.
The draw across every bet size
The same 11 outs on the turn meet a different price at each bet size. The table runs from the smallest bet to the largest, and the row for this page is marked.
A bet larger than 0.46 times the pot ($45.83 on a $100 pot) asks for more than 23.91%. For this draw, 3 of the 12 sizes are calls.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +7.25 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +3.91 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +1.69 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | -1.09 points | Fold |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | -4.66 points | Fold |
| three-quarter-pot, this page | 30.00% | -6.09 points | Fold |
| pot-size | 33.33% | -9.42 points | Fold |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -11.80 points | Fold |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -13.59 points | Fold |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | -16.09 points | Fold |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -18.94 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -20.53 points | Fold |
How this is computed
Here is how 23.91% was found. There is one card to come, so the chance is read directly from 11 outs among 46 unseen cards.
The numbers are a baseline rather than a prediction for one hand. The price is 30.00%, from $75 into $250, and the chance assumes a whole pot won on a hit, no more betting, 46 equally likely unseen cards, and no cards removed for the other player.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Should you call a three-quarter-pot bet with 11 outs on the turn?
Compare 23.91%, your chance to hit by the river, with 30.00%, the equity a three-quarter-pot bet needs. The gap is -6.09 points, so this is a fold. In dollars on a $100 pot, the call averages -$15.22 when no more betting follows.
What count of outs clears the price of a three-quarter-pot bet on the turn?
You need at least 14 outs against a three-quarter-pot bet on the turn. That count hits 30.43% against 30.00% needed, and 13 falls short at 28.26%. With 11 you are 3 short of the minimum.
One card or two: which number belongs next to the 30.00% price?
Both views collapse into 23.91%. Against the 30.00% price of a three-quarter-pot bet, that leaves -6.09 points and a fold, and the choice between one card and two no longer applies.
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