Verdict
Call
19 outs, turn, two-thirds-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the riverone card to come41.30%
- Equity the call needs$66.67 into a pot of $233.3328.57%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+12.73 points
Comparing the draw with the bet
41.30% against 28.57%: the draw beats the price by 12.73 points. On this turn against a two-thirds-pot bet, that is a comfortable call.
A count of 19 outs is usually the sum of more than one draw. Out of 46 unseen cards, one card helps 41.30% of the time.
The same spot in dollars
- Starting pot$100
- Size of the bet$66.67
- Your call$66.67
- Total pot after calling$233.33
- Net gain when you hit$166.67
- Loss on a miss$66.67
- Your chance to hit41.30%
- Calling is worth, on average+$29.71
- Equity the call needs28.57%
- Margin, to four decimals+12.7329 points
- Fractional outs at the price13.14 outs
- Your outs minus break-even outs+5.86 outs
Assume the whole pot goes to you when you hit, the call is lost when you miss, and nothing more is bet. Calling then gains $29.71 on average: $68.84 from hits, minus $39.13 from misses, +0.446 per dollar called.
The same comparison in odds: the odds against hitting are 1.42 : 1, and the pot lays 2.5 : 1 on a call.
One easy error is to use 40.00%, the bet over the pot before your call, as the price. The right price is 28.57%, and the mistaken margin would be +1.3043 points. The bet over the starting pot, 66.67%, would claim -25.3623 points.
What could go wrong before the call flips
Against this bet the draw needs 14 outs at the least. You have 5 outs more than that, so the call has some room.
If hitting means paying off a bigger hand later, the call survives a loss of $71.93. That is 1.08 times the $66.67 call.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 28.57% | +12.73 points | +$29.71 | Call |
| $10 | 29.85% | +11.45 points | +$25.58 | Call |
| $25 | 32.00% | +9.30 points | +$19.38 | Call |
| $50 | 36.36% | +4.94 points | +$9.06 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | -8.70 points | -$11.59 | Fold |
The cost of waiting a street
Only the river remains, so there is just one number: 41.30%. For reference, the same draw on the flop was 65.03%, 23.73 points higher, which against 28.57% is a call.
| Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flop, two cards to come | 65.03% | +36.4609 points | +$85.08 | Call |
| Turn, one card to come | 41.30% | +12.7329 points | +$29.71 | Call |
The call as outs change
One out can change the answer, so the table lists the counts on either side of 19. Each out adds roughly 2.17 points against the 28.57% price.
| Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 outs | 34.78% | +6.21 points | Call |
| 17 outs | 36.96% | +8.39 points | Call |
| 18 outs | 39.13% | +10.56 points | Call |
| 19 outs, this page | 41.30% | +12.73 points | Call |
| 20 outs | 43.48% | +14.91 points | Call |
How bet size moves the answer
One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 19 outs on the turn.
Break-even for this draw is a bet of 2.38 times the pot ($237.50 on a $100 pot). Sizes below it call, sizes above it fold, and 10 of the 12 sizes are calls in the table.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +24.64 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +21.30 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +19.08 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +16.30 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | +12.73 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +11.30 points | Call |
| pot-size | 33.33% | +7.97 points | Call |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +5.59 points | Call |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +3.80 points | Call |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | +1.30 points | Call |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -1.55 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -3.14 points | Fold |
How this is computed
Everything is computed from the closed form. The river chance is 19 outs over 46 unseen cards, 41.30%.
Four assumptions sit behind the verdict: you call the full bet, a hit wins the entire pot, no money goes in after the call, and every one of the 46 unseen cards is equally likely. The price is $66.67 / $233.33 = 28.57%. No card is taken out for what an opponent might hold.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Are 19 outs on the turn worth a call against a bet of two thirds of the pot?
The answer is a call, with a margin of +12.73 points. 19 outs on the turn reach 41.30%; a bet of $66.67 into $100 needs 28.57%. Win the whole pot on a hit and lose the call on a miss, and the call is worth +$29.71 on average.
How strong must a draw be to call a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn?
You need at least 14 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn. That count hits 30.43% against 28.57% needed, and 13 falls short at 28.26%. With 19 you are 5 past the minimum.
How many cards should you count when a two-thirds-pot bet arrives on the turn?
Both views collapse into 41.30%. Against the 28.57% price of a two-thirds-pot bet, that leaves +12.73 points and a call, and the choice between one card and two no longer applies.
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