Top 15 percent of poker hands

In numbers, the top 15 percent is 30 hands and 196 combos, 14.78% of the 1,326 starting hands. It starts at AA, ends at A5s and covers about 1 deal in 6.77.

  • 30Hands
  • 196Combos
  • 14.78%Share of 1,326
  • A5sWeakest hand
  • 65.92%Equity vs random

The 30 hands in the top 15 percent

The cut-off rule is simple: take classes in rank order while the total stays within 15 percent, or 198.90 of the 1,326 combos. A6s is left out because 4 more combos would reach 15.08%, so the exact share is 14.78%.

The top 15 percent on the 13 by 13 grid
  • In the range
  • Not in the range

In order, the hands are AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, AKs, 77, AQs, AJs, AKo, ATs, AQo, AJo, KQs, 66, A9s, ATo, KJs, A8s, KTs, KQo, A7s, A9o, KJo, 55, QJs, K9s, A5s.

How the combos split

The 30 hands fall into three kinds. Combos per hand differ by kind (6, 4 and 12), so the combo column, not the hand column, shows the true weight of each kind.

The top 15 percent by kind of hand
KindHandsCombosShare of range
Pairs106030.61%
Suited hands135226.53%
Offsuit hands78442.86%

Offsuit hands are 42.9% of the range's 196 combos. Pairs add 60, suited hands 52 and offsuit hands 84.

The range by top card

Look at the range through its highest card. For each rank, the table gives the hand count and the combo count out of 196 combos.

The top 15 percent by higher card
Top cardHandsCombos
Ace1498
King746
Queen210
Jack16
Ten16
Nine16
Eight16
Seven16
Six16
Five16
Four00
Three00
Two00

Hands with an ace on top are 14 of the 30 and 98 of the 196 combos, 50.0%. The lowest top card in the range is the five, with 1 hand and 6 combos.

Hands worth knowing at the edge

The range's last hand is A5s: number 30, 59.92% equity against a random hand. Its first absentee is A6s: number 31, 59.91%.

Compared with the top 10 percent, this range adds 10 hands and 66 combos: A8s, KTs, KQo, A7s, A9o, KJo, 55, QJs, K9s, A5s.

How your cards shrink the range

A known card cannot be in an opponent's hand. The tables count the combos of the top 15 percent that survive one card of each rank, and the ones that survive a full two-card holding.

Combos of the top 15 percent left after one known card of each rank
Known cardCombos leftCombos removed
Ace17026
King17917
Queen18412
Jack18412
Ten1888
Nine1888
Eight1924
Seven1924
Six1933
Five1924
Four1960
Three1960
Two1960
Combos of the top 15 percent left when you hold both cards of a hand
You holdCombos left
AA145
KK163
AKs154
AKo154
QQ173
JTs176
77189
A5s167
72o192

A known ace takes 26 combos out of 196; a known two takes 0. With AA in your hand 145 remain, against 192 with 72o.

A worked example

You hold AKs and your opponent plays the top 15 percent. Of that range's 196 combos, 154 use none of your two cards, so your opponent holds one of 154 hands, and the chance that a random deal of the other 1,225 hands falls in the range is 154 / 1,225 = 12.57%.

How strong the range is as a group

Taken as a whole, the range has 65.92% equity against one random hand, and 61.36% against the top 50 percent. Both figures weight each matchup by the combos that can be dealt together.

Questions about the top 15 percent

How many hands are in the top 15 percent?
The top 15 percent is 30 hands and 196 combos, which is 14.78% of the 1,326 two-card hands. It runs from AA down to A5s. A6s is the first hand left out, because 4 more combos would reach 15.08%.
Why is the top 15 percent really 14.78%?
Hands go in as whole classes, in rank order, and a class is never split. The range stops at the last class that keeps the total at or under 15 percent, so it lands on 14.78%, 196 of 1,326 combos, rather than exactly 15.
How many of the combos have an ace in them?
14 hands in the range have an ace as the higher card, adding up to 98 of 196 combos, 50.0%. Holding one ace yourself leaves 170 combos of the range possible for an opponent.

How this was computed

Start with the 169 classes ordered by equity against a random hand. Walk down the list adding combos (a pair is 6, a suited hand 4, an offsuit hand 12) and stop before the total passes 15 percent of 1,326.

Live combos are tallied from the deck after the known cards are removed. Group equity averages our exact table of preflop matchups, every board counted, with weights set by how many pairs of specific hands each matchup stands for.

Source: GeorgeLiPoker's own count of the 52-card deck and its preflop matchup table.