44
47.39%
Wins 46.70%, ties 1.37%
98s
52.61%
Wins 51.93%, ties 1.37%
44 against 98s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 46.702 | 1.372 | 51.926 | 47.388 |
| 98s | 51.926 | 1.372 | 46.702 | 52.612 |
Here a pocket pair (44) meets a suited hand (98s). A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
98s leads by less than 6 points of equity, so the result of any one deal is close to a toss-up. Ties are part of the picture: 1.37% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
By strength against a random hand, 44 holds place 48 of 169 and 98s holds place 83.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 19,192,000 | 564,000 | 21,339,000 |
| 98s | 21,339,000 | 564,000 | 19,192,000 |
The board total is exact, 24 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.901 | 2.141 | 1.926 | 1.110 |
| 98s | 1.110 | 1.926 | 2.141 | 0.901 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. 98s does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 57.93%, and worst on paired flops, at 48.41%. 98s is the favorite overall but falls behind on paired flops.
| Flop | Share of flops | 44 wins | Ties | 98s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 48.142 | 0.795 | 51.063 | 48.540 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 41.751 | 0.648 | 57.601 | 42.075 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 45.329 | 0.736 | 53.935 | 45.697 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 46.376 | 3.159 | 50.465 | 47.956 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 49.787 | 3.613 | 46.600 | 51.594 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Against one random hand instead, 44 holds 57.02% and 98s holds 50.80%. Facing each other changes that by -9.63 points for 44 and +1.81 points for 98s.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44, all flops | 47.388 | 57.023 | -9.635 | 0.83103 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.540 | 57.023 | -8.483 | 0.85124 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 42.075 | 57.023 | -14.948 | 0.73786 |
| 44, two-tone | 45.697 | 57.023 | -11.326 | 0.80138 |
| 44, monotone | 47.956 | 57.023 | -9.067 | 0.84099 |
| 44, paired | 51.594 | 57.023 | -5.429 | 0.90479 |
| 98s, all flops | 52.612 | 50.801 | +1.811 | 1.03565 |
| 98s, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.460 | 50.801 | +0.659 | 1.01297 |
| 98s, rainbow, nine or lower | 57.925 | 50.801 | +7.124 | 1.14023 |
| 98s, two-tone | 54.303 | 50.801 | +3.502 | 1.06894 |
| 98s, monotone | 52.044 | 50.801 | +1.243 | 1.02447 |
| 98s, paired | 48.406 | 50.801 | -2.395 | 0.95286 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give 98s 52.48% when the hands overlap in a suit and 52.75% when they do not. 98s does better with no shared suit, by 0.27 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 44 wins | Ties | 98s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 46.818 | 1.408 | 51.774 | 47.522 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 46.586 | 1.336 | 52.078 | 47.254 |
How often this matchup comes up
Exactly 24 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0015% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 48, or 0.0030%.
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average 98s takes back $105.22 of it, which is $5.22 more than it put in, and 44 takes back $94.78, $5.22 less than it put in.
Run 1,000 deals and the tally comes out near 519 for 98s, 467 for 44 and 14 ties.
The same matchup from the other side
98s against 44 adds nothing new: it is 52.61% for 98s and 47.39% for 44, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in 4s4h against 9d8d, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 24 specific deals of 44 against 98s, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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