98s
53.43%
Wins 52.41%, ties 2.04%
22
46.57%
Wins 45.55%, ties 2.04%
98s against 22: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98s | 52.413 | 2.035 | 45.552 | 53.430 |
| 22 | 45.552 | 2.035 | 52.413 | 46.570 |
The matchup pits a suited hand against a pocket pair. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
This is close to even money, with 98s a little ahead. The tie share is 2.04%: on those boards the pot is chopped and neither hand wins outright.
The hand ranking puts 98s at 83 and 22 at 87 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98s | 21,539,000 | 836,000 | 18,720,000 |
| 22 | 18,720,000 | 836,000 | 21,539,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98s | 1.147 | 1.908 | 2.195 | 0.872 |
| 22 | 0.872 | 2.195 | 1.908 | 1.147 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. 98s does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 58.45%, and worst on paired flops, at 51.19%. 98s stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | 98s wins | Ties | 22 wins | 98s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 51.253 | 1.151 | 47.596 | 51.828 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 58.122 | 0.648 | 41.230 | 58.446 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 54.169 | 1.021 | 44.810 | 54.680 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 50.651 | 4.278 | 45.071 | 52.790 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 48.287 | 5.806 | 45.907 | 51.190 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
A random hand would give 98s 50.80% and 22 50.33%. Against each other the change is +2.63 points for 98s and -3.76 for 22.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98s, all flops | 53.430 | 50.801 | +2.629 | 1.05175 |
| 98s, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.828 | 50.801 | +1.027 | 1.02022 |
| 98s, rainbow, nine or lower | 58.446 | 50.801 | +7.645 | 1.15049 |
| 98s, two-tone | 54.680 | 50.801 | +3.879 | 1.07636 |
| 98s, monotone | 52.790 | 50.801 | +1.989 | 1.03915 |
| 98s, paired | 51.190 | 50.801 | +0.389 | 1.00766 |
| 22, all flops | 46.570 | 50.334 | -3.764 | 0.92522 |
| 22, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.172 | 50.334 | -2.162 | 0.95705 |
| 22, rainbow, nine or lower | 41.554 | 50.334 | -8.780 | 0.82557 |
| 22, two-tone | 45.320 | 50.334 | -5.014 | 0.90039 |
| 22, monotone | 47.210 | 50.334 | -3.124 | 0.93793 |
| 22, paired | 48.810 | 50.334 | -1.524 | 0.96972 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give 98s 53.29% when the hands overlap in a suit and 53.57% when they do not. 98s does better with no shared suit, by 0.28 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 98s wins | Ties | 22 wins | 98s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.261 | 2.055 | 45.684 | 53.288 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 52.565 | 2.014 | 45.421 | 53.572 |
How often this matchup comes up
The class pair covers 24 combinations of specific cards in a fixed seat order, 0.0015% of 1,624,350, and 48 (0.0030%) in either order.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, 98s' average share is $106.86 (a gain of $6.86) and 22's is $93.14 (a loss of $6.86).
A thousand deals look like this: 98s takes 524, 22 takes 456, 20 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
The reversed view, 22 against 98s, shows 46.57% for 22 and 53.43% for 98s. It is the same count, so it redirects here.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 9s8s against 2h2d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 24 ways to deal one 98s and one 22 without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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