99
81.34%
Wins 80.97%, ties 0.73%
33
18.66%
Wins 18.30%, ties 0.73%
99 against 33: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 80.974 | 0.725 | 18.301 | 81.337 |
| 33 | 18.301 | 0.725 | 80.974 | 18.663 |
Each side holds one of the pocket pairs: 99 and 33. A pair against a smaller pair is the classic crush: the smaller pair needs one of its two remaining cards to make a set.
A gap this wide means 33 is in trouble before the flop and has few good runouts. A split pot comes up on 0.73% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
By strength against a random hand, 99 holds place 6 of 169 and 33 holds place 66.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 49,915,000 | 447,000 | 11,281,000 |
| 33 | 11,281,000 | 447,000 | 49,915,000 |
Exact total: 36 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 4.358 | 1.235 | 5.464 | 0.229 |
| 33 | 0.229 | 5.464 | 1.235 | 4.358 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: 99 holds 86.35% on paired flops and 72.19% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). 99 stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | 33 wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 82.413 | 0.411 | 17.176 | 82.619 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 71.762 | 0.863 | 27.375 | 72.193 |
| Two-tone | 46.363 | 80.085 | 0.471 | 19.444 | 80.320 |
| Monotone | 5.152 | 74.747 | 2.362 | 22.891 | 75.928 |
| Paired | 17.576 | 85.686 | 1.334 | 12.980 | 86.353 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of +9.28 points for 99, from 72.06%, and -35.03 for 33, from 53.69%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 81.337 | 72.057 | +9.280 | 1.12879 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 82.619 | 72.057 | +10.562 | 1.14658 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 72.193 | 72.057 | +0.136 | 1.00189 |
| 99, two-tone | 80.320 | 72.057 | +8.263 | 1.11467 |
| 99, monotone | 75.928 | 72.057 | +3.871 | 1.05372 |
| 99, paired | 86.353 | 72.057 | +14.296 | 1.19840 |
| 33, all flops | 18.663 | 53.693 | -35.030 | 0.34759 |
| 33, rainbow, ten or higher | 17.381 | 53.693 | -36.312 | 0.32371 |
| 33, rainbow, nine or lower | 27.807 | 53.693 | -25.886 | 0.51789 |
| 33, two-tone | 19.680 | 53.693 | -34.013 | 0.36653 |
| 33, monotone | 24.072 | 53.693 | -29.621 | 0.44833 |
| 33, paired | 13.647 | 53.693 | -40.046 | 0.25417 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give 99 81.47% when the hands overlap in a suit and 80.67% when they do not. 99 does better with a shared suit, by 0.80 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | 33 wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 30 | 83.33 | 81.102 | 0.736 | 18.162 | 81.470 |
| No shared suit | 6 | 16.67 | 80.338 | 0.669 | 18.993 | 80.673 |
How often this matchup comes up
Exactly 36 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0022% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 72, or 0.0044%.
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: 99 averages $162.68 back, ahead of its $100 by $62.68, while 33 averages $37.32, short of its $100 by $62.68.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 810 outright wins for 99, 183 for 33, and 7 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: 33 against 99 is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so 33 holds 18.66% and 99 holds 81.34%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 9s9h against 3d3c already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
The page is built from a full enumeration: 1,712,304 boards, every suit pattern of the 36 specific deals, both seven-card hands evaluated. A tie is worth half a win to each hand, and a board is tallied under each of its ten possible flops for the texture rows.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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