99
51.99%
Wins 51.78%, ties 0.41%
QTs
48.01%
Wins 47.81%, ties 0.41%
99 against QTs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 51.783 | 0.409 | 47.808 | 51.988 |
| QTs | 47.808 | 0.409 | 51.783 | 48.012 |
The matchup pits a pocket pair against a suited hand. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
That is a slim edge: neither hand is far ahead. Ties are part of the picture: 0.41% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
For context, 99 sits at number 6 of 169 starting hands and QTs at number 34 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 21,280,000 | 168,000 | 19,647,000 |
| QTs | 19,647,000 | 168,000 | 21,280,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 1.083 | 1.931 | 2.092 | 0.924 |
| QTs | 0.924 | 2.092 | 1.931 | 1.083 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. 99 does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 76.67%, and worst on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, at 45.53%. The overall edge for 99 hides rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and two-tone flops, where QTs comes out in front.
| Flop | Share of flops | 99 wins | Ties | QTs wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 45.444 | 0.174 | 54.382 | 45.531 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 76.233 | 0.866 | 22.901 | 76.666 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 49.573 | 0.292 | 50.135 | 49.719 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 49.640 | 2.388 | 47.972 | 50.834 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 58.453 | 0.295 | 41.252 | 58.601 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Start from the random-hand figures, 72.06% for 99 and 59.47% for QTs. This opponent changes them by -20.07 and -11.46 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99, all flops | 51.988 | 72.057 | -20.069 | 0.72148 |
| 99, rainbow, ten or higher | 45.531 | 72.057 | -26.526 | 0.63187 |
| 99, rainbow, nine or lower | 76.666 | 72.057 | +4.609 | 1.06396 |
| 99, two-tone | 49.719 | 72.057 | -22.338 | 0.69000 |
| 99, monotone | 50.834 | 72.057 | -21.223 | 0.70547 |
| 99, paired | 58.601 | 72.057 | -13.456 | 0.81326 |
| QTs, all flops | 48.012 | 59.468 | -11.456 | 0.80736 |
| QTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 54.469 | 59.468 | -4.999 | 0.91594 |
| QTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 23.334 | 59.468 | -36.134 | 0.39238 |
| QTs, two-tone | 50.281 | 59.468 | -9.187 | 0.84551 |
| QTs, monotone | 49.166 | 59.468 | -10.302 | 0.82676 |
| QTs, paired | 41.399 | 59.468 | -18.069 | 0.69616 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 12 of them the hands share a suit and 99 holds 52.11%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 51.87%. The two rows differ by only 0.24 points, so suits barely change this matchup.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 99 wins | Ties | QTs wins | 99 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 51.881 | 0.449 | 47.670 | 52.106 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 51.686 | 0.368 | 47.946 | 51.870 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0030% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 48 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
To see what the equity is worth, imagine $100 each in a $200 pot. 99 is worth $103.98 on average (+$3.98); QTs is worth $96.02 (-$3.98).
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 518 for 99, 478 for QTs and 4 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
QTs versus 99 is this same page seen from the other hand: 48.01% for QTs, 51.99% for 99.
Keep exploring
Try 9s9h against QdTd in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
The page is built from a full enumeration: 1,712,304 boards, every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, both seven-card hands evaluated. A tie is worth half a win to each hand, and a board is tallied under each of its ten possible flops for the texture rows.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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