A5s
48.00%
Wins 47.72%, ties 0.56%
44
52.00%
Wins 51.72%, ties 0.56%
A5s against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A5s | 47.715 | 0.561 | 51.724 | 47.996 |
| 44 | 51.724 | 0.561 | 47.715 | 52.004 |
A5s is a suited hand and 44 is a pocket pair. A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
This is close to even money, with 44 a little ahead. Split pots make up 0.56% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
For context, A5s sits at number 30 of 169 starting hands and 44 at number 48 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| A5s | 19,609,000 | 231,000 | 21,256,000 |
| 44 | 21,256,000 | 231,000 | 19,609,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A5s | 0.923 | 2.096 | 1.933 | 1.084 |
| 44 | 1.084 | 1.933 | 2.096 | 0.923 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, 44 peaks at 58.56% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 50.75% on two-tone flops. 44 stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | A5s wins | Ties | 44 wins | A5s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.220 | 48.019 | 0.291 | 51.690 | 48.164 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.689 | 40.967 | 0.953 | 58.080 | 41.444 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 49.059 | 0.379 | 50.562 | 49.249 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 47.247 | 2.856 | 49.897 | 48.675 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 46.021 | 0.625 | 53.354 | 46.334 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of -11.92 points for A5s, from 59.92%, and -5.02 for 44, from 57.02%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A5s, all flops | 47.996 | 59.923 | -11.927 | 0.80096 |
| A5s, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.164 | 59.923 | -11.759 | 0.80376 |
| A5s, rainbow, nine or lower | 41.444 | 59.923 | -18.479 | 0.69162 |
| A5s, two-tone | 49.249 | 59.923 | -10.674 | 0.82187 |
| A5s, monotone | 48.675 | 59.923 | -11.248 | 0.81229 |
| A5s, paired | 46.334 | 59.923 | -13.589 | 0.77323 |
| 44, all flops | 52.004 | 57.023 | -5.019 | 0.91198 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.836 | 57.023 | -5.187 | 0.90904 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 58.556 | 57.023 | +1.533 | 1.02688 |
| 44, two-tone | 50.751 | 57.023 | -6.272 | 0.89001 |
| 44, monotone | 51.325 | 57.023 | -5.698 | 0.90008 |
| 44, paired | 53.666 | 57.023 | -3.357 | 0.94113 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, 44 has 52.16%; looking only at deals where they do not, 51.85%. 44 does better with a shared suit, by 0.31 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | A5s wins | Ties | 44 wins | A5s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 47.547 | 0.596 | 51.857 | 47.845 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 47.884 | 0.526 | 51.590 | 48.147 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, A5s against 44 appears in 24 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0015%), and in 48 when the seats are swapped too (0.0030%).
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. 44 averages $104.00 from the $200, up $4.00; A5s averages $96.00, down $4.00.
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 517 won outright by 44, about 477 won outright by A5s and about 6 split.
The same matchup from the other side
One page covers both views. From 44's side the equity is 52.00%, and from A5s' side it is 48.00%.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in As5s against 4h4d, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 24 specific deals of A5s against 44, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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