A9o vs K9s: preflop equity

The exact count puts A9o at 70.01% and K9s at 29.99% when the two hands see all five board cards.

A9o

70.01%

Wins 68.99%, ties 2.05%

K9s

29.99%

Wins 28.96%, ties 2.05%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

A9o against K9s: the numbers

Exact preflop results for A9o against K9s, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
A9o68.9882.04628.96670.011
K9s28.9662.04668.98829.989

One side is an offsuit hand, the other is a suited hand. Sharing a rank is the signature of a dominated hand, since the weaker hand is usually out-kicked when the shared rank shows up.

A9o is well ahead, and K9s needs a specific kind of board to catch up. About 2.05% of boards chop the pot, which is why equity sits slightly above the win figure for both hands.

Ranked by equity against a random hand, A9o is number 25 of the 169 starting hands and K9s is number 29.

Boards behind the percentages: 61,642,944 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
A9o42,526,0001,261,00017,855,000
K9s17,855,0001,261,00042,526,000

The board total is exact, 36 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.

A9o against K9s read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
A9o2.3351.4503.4520.428
K9s0.4283.4521.4502.335

The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.

Who is ahead on which flops

A9o prefers low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), where it holds 82.99%, and likes monotone flops least, where it holds 65.16%. A9o stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.

A9o against K9s by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsA9o winsTiesK9s winsA9o equity
Rainbow, ten or higher24.63468.0731.50830.41968.827
Rainbow, nine or lower6.31480.9594.05914.98282.988
Two-tone46.52767.1971.83830.96568.116
Monotone5.19263.5553.21133.23465.160
Paired17.33372.3632.28725.35073.507

Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.

Compared with a random hand

Start from the random-hand figures, 60.77% for A9o and 59.99% for K9s. This opponent changes them by +9.24 and -30.00 points.

A9o and K9s here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
A9o, all flops70.01160.773+9.2381.15201
A9o, rainbow, ten or higher68.82760.773+8.0541.13253
A9o, rainbow, nine or lower82.98860.773+22.2151.36554
A9o, two-tone68.11660.773+7.3431.12083
A9o, monotone65.16060.773+4.3871.07219
A9o, paired73.50760.773+12.7341.20953
K9s, all flops29.98959.988-29.9990.49992
K9s, rainbow, ten or higher31.17359.988-28.8150.51965
K9s, rainbow, nine or lower17.01259.988-42.9760.28359
K9s, two-tone31.88459.988-28.1040.53151
K9s, monotone34.84059.988-25.1480.58078
K9s, paired26.49359.988-33.4950.44164

Does a shared suit matter?

Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common A9o has 71.13% equity, and with none in common it has 69.45%. A9o does better with a shared suit, by 1.68 points.

A9o against K9s by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsA9o winsTiesK9s winsA9o equity
Share a suit1233.3370.0742.12027.80671.134
No shared suit2466.6768.4462.00929.54569.450

How often this matchup comes up

Counting specific cards, A9o against K9s appears in 36 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0022%), and in 72 when the seats are swapped too (0.0044%).

A worked example

Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: A9o averages $140.02 back, ahead of its $100 by $40.02, while K9s averages $59.98, short of its $100 by $40.02.

In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 690 won outright by A9o, about 290 won outright by K9s and about 20 split.

The same matchup from the other side

K9s against A9o adds nothing new: it is 29.99% for K9s and 70.01% for A9o, the same figures reversed.

As9h against Kd9d is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.

How this was computed

We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 36 specific A9o against K9s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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