AA
82.74%
Wins 82.56%, ties 0.36%
JTo
17.26%
Wins 17.08%, ties 0.36%
AA against JTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 82.559 | 0.358 | 17.083 | 82.738 |
| JTo | 17.083 | 0.358 | 82.559 | 17.262 |
AA and JTo are a pocket pair and an offsuit hand, in that order. Here a pair faces two cards that are both smaller, so the other hand needs to pair up and still be behind.
This is one of the lopsided matchups: JTo wins only 17.08% of the boards outright. A split pot comes up on 0.36% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
By strength against a random hand, AA holds place 1 of 169 and JTo holds place 57.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 101,784,000 | 441,000 | 21,061,000 |
| JTo | 21,061,000 | 441,000 | 101,784,000 |
The board total is exact, 72 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 4.793 | 1.211 | 5.854 | 0.209 |
| JTo | 0.209 | 5.854 | 1.211 | 4.793 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and AA is strongest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (88.46%) and weakest on monotone flops (78.09%). AA stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | AA wins | Ties | JTo wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.260 | 80.369 | 0.161 | 19.470 | 80.450 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 87.989 | 0.940 | 11.071 | 88.459 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 81.824 | 0.340 | 17.836 | 81.994 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 77.231 | 1.719 | 21.050 | 78.090 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 86.619 | 0.007 | 13.374 | 86.623 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
A random hand would give AA 85.20% and JTo 55.25%. Against each other the change is -2.46 points for AA and -37.99 for JTo.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA, all flops | 82.738 | 85.204 | -2.466 | 0.97106 |
| AA, rainbow, ten or higher | 80.450 | 85.204 | -4.754 | 0.94420 |
| AA, rainbow, nine or lower | 88.459 | 85.204 | +3.255 | 1.03820 |
| AA, two-tone | 81.994 | 85.204 | -3.210 | 0.96233 |
| AA, monotone | 78.090 | 85.204 | -7.114 | 0.91651 |
| AA, paired | 86.623 | 85.204 | +1.419 | 1.01665 |
| JTo, all flops | 17.262 | 55.248 | -37.986 | 0.31245 |
| JTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 19.550 | 55.248 | -35.698 | 0.35386 |
| JTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 11.541 | 55.248 | -43.707 | 0.20889 |
| JTo, two-tone | 18.006 | 55.248 | -37.242 | 0.32591 |
| JTo, monotone | 21.910 | 55.248 | -33.338 | 0.39658 |
| JTo, paired | 13.377 | 55.248 | -41.871 | 0.24213 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give AA 82.88% when the hands overlap in a suit and 82.04% when they do not. AA does better with a shared suit, by 0.84 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AA wins | Ties | JTo wins | AA equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 82.691 | 0.374 | 16.935 | 82.878 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 81.898 | 0.278 | 17.824 | 82.037 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 72 are AA in one seat and JTo in the other (0.0044%); with the seats swapped too, 144 (0.0089%).
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. AA averages $165.48 from the $200, up $65.48; JTo averages $34.52, down $65.48.
Run 1,000 deals and the tally comes out near 826 for AA, 171 for JTo and 3 ties.
The same matchup from the other side
One page covers both views. From JTo's side the equity is 17.26%, and from AA's side it is 82.74%.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsAh against JdTc already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 72 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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