AA vs KQo: preflop equity

If AA and KQo get all the chips in before the flop, AA owns 87.12% of the pot in the long run and KQo owns 12.88%.

AA

87.12%

Wins 86.92%, ties 0.41%

KQo

12.88%

Wins 12.67%, ties 0.41%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

AA against KQo: the numbers

Exact preflop results for AA against KQo, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
AA86.9160.40712.67787.120
KQo12.6770.40786.91612.880

AA and KQo are a pocket pair and an offsuit hand, in that order. Here a pair faces two cards that are both smaller, so the other hand needs to pair up and still be behind.

This is one of the lopsided matchups: KQo wins only 12.67% of the boards outright. Of every 100 boards, about 0.41 are split pots, and the equity figures already include them.

In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, AA is number 1 and KQo is number 23.

Boards behind the percentages: 123,285,888 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
AA107,155,000502,00015,629,000
KQo15,629,000502,000107,155,000

Exact total: 72 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.

AA against KQo read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
AA6.7641.1517.8880.148
KQo0.1487.8881.1516.764

The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.

Who is ahead on which flops

Across the five flop textures AA's equity moves by 15.56 points, from 81.66% on monotone flops to 97.22% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AA stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.

AA against KQo by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsAA winsTiesKQo winsAA equity
Rainbow, ten or higher23.26084.1420.11415.74484.199
Rainbow, nine or lower7.77196.5511.3282.12197.215
Two-tone46.48586.6180.40012.98286.818
Monotone5.15180.7761.76117.46381.657
Paired17.33388.9410.00711.05288.945

A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.

Compared with a random hand

How much does the opponent matter? Compared with its random-hand 85.20%, AA changes by +1.92 points, and KQo, from 61.46%, by -48.58.

AA and KQo here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
AA, all flops87.12085.204+1.9161.02249
AA, rainbow, ten or higher84.19985.204-1.0050.98820
AA, rainbow, nine or lower97.21585.204+12.0111.14097
AA, two-tone86.81885.204+1.6141.01894
AA, monotone81.65785.204-3.5470.95837
AA, paired88.94585.204+3.7411.04391
KQo, all flops12.88061.456-48.5760.20958
KQo, rainbow, ten or higher15.80161.456-45.6550.25711
KQo, rainbow, nine or lower2.78561.456-58.6710.04532
KQo, two-tone13.18261.456-48.2740.21449
KQo, monotone18.34361.456-43.1130.29847
KQo, paired11.05561.456-50.4010.17988

Does a shared suit matter?

Two kinds of deal exist here. In 60 of them the hands share a suit and AA holds 87.27%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 86.35%. AA does better with a shared suit, by 0.92 points.

AA against KQo by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsAA winsTiesKQo winsAA equity
Share a suit6083.3387.0630.42312.51487.274
No shared suit1216.6786.1850.32713.48886.348

How often this matchup comes up

AA against KQo is made up of 72 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0044% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 144 counting both seat orders, 0.0089%.

A worked example

Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. AA's equity of 87.12% is worth $174.24, a $74.24 edge, and KQo's 12.88% is worth $25.76, which is $74.24 under its stake.

Per 1,000 deals: AA wins about 869, KQo wins about 127, and about 4 end in a split pot.

The same matchup from the other side

KQo versus AA is this same page seen from the other hand: 12.88% for KQo, 87.12% for AA.

Open the calculator with AsAh against KdQc already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.

How this was computed

Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 72 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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