AJs
58.97%
Wins 58.71%, ties 0.52%
KQs
41.03%
Wins 40.77%, ties 0.52%
AJs against KQs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs | 58.708 | 0.524 | 40.768 | 58.970 |
| KQs | 40.768 | 0.524 | 58.708 | 41.030 |
Each side holds one of the suited hands: AJs and KQs. Neither hand shares a rank with the other, so this is a contest of high cards, connection and suits.
A 17.94 point lead is real, and KQs still takes about 408 of every 1,000 deals outright. Ties are 0.52% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, AJs is number 11 and KQs is number 16.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJs | 16,084,000 | 144,000 | 11,169,000 |
| KQs | 11,169,000 | 144,000 | 16,084,000 |
The board total is exact, 16 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs | 1.437 | 1.703 | 2.453 | 0.696 |
| KQs | 0.696 | 2.453 | 1.703 | 1.437 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and AJs is strongest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (74.38%) and weakest on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better (53.37%). AJs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AJs wins | Ties | KQs wins | AJs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.138 | 53.332 | 0.068 | 46.600 | 53.366 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 73.810 | 1.142 | 25.048 | 74.381 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 57.722 | 0.292 | 41.986 | 57.868 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 54.243 | 3.422 | 42.335 | 55.954 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 63.193 | 0.600 | 36.207 | 63.493 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Against one random hand instead, AJs holds 65.39% and KQs holds 63.40%. Facing each other changes that by -6.42 points for AJs and -22.37 points for KQs.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJs, all flops | 58.970 | 65.393 | -6.423 | 0.90178 |
| AJs, rainbow, ten or higher | 53.366 | 65.393 | -12.027 | 0.81608 |
| AJs, rainbow, nine or lower | 74.381 | 65.393 | +8.988 | 1.13745 |
| AJs, two-tone | 57.868 | 65.393 | -7.525 | 0.88493 |
| AJs, monotone | 55.954 | 65.393 | -9.439 | 0.85566 |
| AJs, paired | 63.493 | 65.393 | -1.900 | 0.97094 |
| KQs, all flops | 41.030 | 63.400 | -22.370 | 0.64716 |
| KQs, rainbow, ten or higher | 46.634 | 63.400 | -16.766 | 0.73555 |
| KQs, rainbow, nine or lower | 25.619 | 63.400 | -37.781 | 0.40409 |
| KQs, two-tone | 42.132 | 63.400 | -21.268 | 0.66454 |
| KQs, monotone | 44.046 | 63.400 | -19.354 | 0.69473 |
| KQs, paired | 36.507 | 63.400 | -26.893 | 0.57582 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common AJs has 61.08% equity, and with none in common it has 58.27%. AJs does better with a shared suit, by 2.81 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AJs wins | Ties | KQs wins | AJs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 60.780 | 0.603 | 38.617 | 61.081 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 58.018 | 0.497 | 41.485 | 58.266 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 16 are AJs in one seat and KQs in the other (0.0010%); with the seats swapped too, 32 (0.0020%).
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, AJs' average share is $117.94 (a gain of $17.94) and KQs' is $82.06 (a loss of $17.94).
Think in thousands: about 587 of 1,000 go to AJs, about 408 go to KQs, and about 5 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
KQs against AJs adds nothing new: it is 41.03% for KQs and 58.97% for AJs, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsJs against KhQh, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 16 deals of AJs against KQs fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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