AKs
71.28%
Wins 69.16%, ties 4.23%
AQs
28.72%
Wins 26.61%, ties 4.23%
AKs against AQs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 69.163 | 4.229 | 26.608 | 71.277 |
| AQs | 26.608 | 4.229 | 69.163 | 28.723 |
AKs meets AQs, and both are suited hands. Sharing a rank is the signature of a dominated hand, since the weaker hand is usually out-kicked when the shared rank shows up.
A lead of 42.56 points is large but not decisive: AQs still takes about 266 of every 1,000 deals. 4.23% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
AKs ranks number 8 of 169 starting hands, and AQs ranks number 10, by equity against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 14,211,000 | 869,000 | 5,467,000 |
| AQs | 5,467,000 | 869,000 | 14,211,000 |
The total is exact: 12 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 2.482 | 1.446 | 3.758 | 0.403 |
| AQs | 0.403 | 3.758 | 1.446 | 2.482 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
AKs prefers low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), where it holds 82.47%, and likes monotone flops least, where it holds 64.64%. AKs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AKs wins | Ties | AQs wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.138 | 69.770 | 1.923 | 28.307 | 70.732 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 79.854 | 5.222 | 14.924 | 82.465 |
| Two-tone | 46.543 | 69.380 | 2.459 | 28.161 | 70.609 |
| Monotone | 5.215 | 62.393 | 4.485 | 33.122 | 64.635 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 65.015 | 11.535 | 23.450 | 70.783 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Start from the random-hand figures, 67.05% for AKs and 66.21% for AQs. This opponent changes them by +4.23 and -37.49 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs, all flops | 71.277 | 67.045 | +4.232 | 1.06312 |
| AKs, rainbow, ten or higher | 70.732 | 67.045 | +3.687 | 1.05499 |
| AKs, rainbow, nine or lower | 82.465 | 67.045 | +15.420 | 1.22999 |
| AKs, two-tone | 70.609 | 67.045 | +3.564 | 1.05316 |
| AKs, monotone | 64.635 | 67.045 | -2.410 | 0.96405 |
| AKs, paired | 70.783 | 67.045 | +3.738 | 1.05575 |
| AQs, all flops | 28.723 | 66.209 | -37.486 | 0.43382 |
| AQs, rainbow, ten or higher | 29.268 | 66.209 | -36.941 | 0.44205 |
| AQs, rainbow, nine or lower | 17.535 | 66.209 | -48.674 | 0.26484 |
| AQs, two-tone | 29.391 | 66.209 | -36.818 | 0.44391 |
| AQs, monotone | 35.365 | 66.209 | -30.844 | 0.53414 |
| AQs, paired | 29.217 | 66.209 | -36.992 | 0.44128 |
Does a shared suit matter?
For this pair the shared-suit row is empty: the two hands cannot both own a card of one suit without reusing a card.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AKs wins | Ties | AQs wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 69.163 | 4.229 | 26.608 | 71.277 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 12 are AKs in one seat and AQs in the other (0.0007%); with the seats swapped too, 24 (0.0015%).
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: AKs averages $142.56 back, ahead of its $100 by $42.56, while AQs averages $57.44, short of its $100 by $42.56.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 692 for AKs, 266 for AQs and 42 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
AQs versus AKs is this same page seen from the other hand: 28.72% for AQs, 71.28% for AKs.
Keep exploring
Try AsKs against AhQh in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
Method: exact enumeration. The 12 specific deals are grouped by suit pattern, each is run against all 1,712,304 boards, and both seven-card hands are scored. Equity adds half of every tie, and flop textures are tallied over the ten flops inside each board.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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