AQs
50.21%
Wins 49.90%, ties 0.64%
22
49.79%
Wins 49.46%, ties 0.64%
AQs against 22: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 49.895 | 0.639 | 49.466 | 50.214 |
| 22 | 49.466 | 0.639 | 49.895 | 49.786 |
AQs is a suited hand and 22 is a pocket pair. A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
With only 0.42 points between them, the board decides this matchup far more than the cards in hand. 0.64% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
The hand ranking puts AQs at 10 and 22 at 87 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 20,504,000 | 263,000 | 20,328,000 |
| 22 | 20,328,000 | 263,000 | 20,504,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 1.009 | 2.004 | 2.022 | 0.991 |
| 22 | 0.991 | 2.022 | 2.004 | 1.009 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures AQs' equity moves by 30.77 points, from 24.18% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) to 54.95% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. On low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) the numbers flip and 22 is the one ahead.
| Flop | Share of flops | AQs wins | Ties | 22 wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 54.860 | 0.188 | 44.952 | 54.954 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 23.497 | 1.374 | 75.129 | 24.184 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 50.671 | 0.391 | 48.938 | 50.866 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 48.319 | 3.749 | 47.932 | 50.193 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 50.856 | 0.742 | 48.402 | 51.227 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, AQs changes by -16.00 points (baseline 66.21%) and 22 by -0.54 points (baseline 50.33%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs, all flops | 50.214 | 66.209 | -15.995 | 0.75842 |
| AQs, rainbow, ten or higher | 54.954 | 66.209 | -11.255 | 0.83001 |
| AQs, rainbow, nine or lower | 24.184 | 66.209 | -42.025 | 0.36527 |
| AQs, two-tone | 50.866 | 66.209 | -15.343 | 0.76826 |
| AQs, monotone | 50.193 | 66.209 | -16.016 | 0.75810 |
| AQs, paired | 51.227 | 66.209 | -14.982 | 0.77372 |
| 22, all flops | 49.786 | 50.334 | -0.548 | 0.98911 |
| 22, rainbow, ten or higher | 45.046 | 50.334 | -5.288 | 0.89494 |
| 22, rainbow, nine or lower | 75.816 | 50.334 | +25.482 | 1.50626 |
| 22, two-tone | 49.134 | 50.334 | -1.200 | 0.97616 |
| 22, monotone | 49.807 | 50.334 | -0.527 | 0.98953 |
| 22, paired | 48.773 | 50.334 | -1.561 | 0.96899 |
Does a shared suit matter?
When the hands share a suit, AQs holds 50.03%; when they do not, it holds 50.40%. AQs does better with no shared suit, by 0.37 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AQs wins | Ties | 22 wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 49.698 | 0.659 | 49.643 | 50.027 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 50.092 | 0.619 | 49.289 | 50.402 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 24 specific-card matchups (0.0015% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 48 once you count the seats both ways (0.0030%).
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: AQs averages $100.42 back, ahead of its $100 by $0.42, while 22 averages $99.58, short of its $100 by $0.42.
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 499 won outright by AQs, about 495 won outright by 22 and about 6 split.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for 22 against AQs, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 49.79% and 50.21%.
Keep exploring
Try AsQs against 2h2d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
Method: exact enumeration. The 24 specific deals are grouped by suit pattern, each is run against all 1,712,304 boards, and both seven-card hands are scored. Equity adds half of every tie, and flop textures are tallied over the ten flops inside each board.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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