ATo
70.96%
Wins 70.07%, ties 1.77%
JTo
29.04%
Wins 28.16%, ties 1.77%
ATo against JTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATo | 70.073 | 1.766 | 28.161 | 70.956 |
| JTo | 28.161 | 1.766 | 70.073 | 29.044 |
ATo meets JTo, and both are offsuit hands. Because the hands share one rank, the one with the higher kicker is ahead when that rank pairs and the other hand is mostly drawing.
ATo is well ahead, and JTo needs a specific kind of board to catch up. Split pots make up 1.77% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
Among the 169 starting hands, ATo is number 19 and JTo is number 57 by strength against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATo | 129,585,000 | 3,266,000 | 52,078,000 |
| JTo | 52,078,000 | 3,266,000 | 129,585,000 |
108 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATo | 2.443 | 1.427 | 3.551 | 0.409 |
| JTo | 0.409 | 3.551 | 1.427 | 2.443 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and ATo is strongest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (78.82%) and weakest on monotone flops (65.96%). ATo stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATo wins | Ties | JTo wins | ATo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.275 | 66.943 | 1.682 | 31.375 | 67.784 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 78.012 | 1.618 | 20.370 | 78.821 |
| Two-tone | 46.477 | 69.232 | 1.604 | 29.164 | 70.034 |
| Monotone | 5.144 | 64.710 | 2.501 | 32.789 | 65.960 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 74.564 | 2.163 | 23.273 | 75.646 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 62.72% for ATo, 55.25% for JTo. Here the change is +8.24 and -26.21 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATo, all flops | 70.956 | 62.722 | +8.234 | 1.13128 |
| ATo, rainbow, ten or higher | 67.784 | 62.722 | +5.062 | 1.08071 |
| ATo, rainbow, nine or lower | 78.821 | 62.722 | +16.099 | 1.25667 |
| ATo, two-tone | 70.034 | 62.722 | +7.312 | 1.11658 |
| ATo, monotone | 65.960 | 62.722 | +3.238 | 1.05162 |
| ATo, paired | 75.646 | 62.722 | +12.924 | 1.20605 |
| JTo, all flops | 29.044 | 55.248 | -26.204 | 0.52570 |
| JTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 32.216 | 55.248 | -23.032 | 0.58312 |
| JTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 21.179 | 55.248 | -34.069 | 0.38334 |
| JTo, two-tone | 29.966 | 55.248 | -25.282 | 0.54239 |
| JTo, monotone | 34.040 | 55.248 | -21.208 | 0.61613 |
| JTo, paired | 24.354 | 55.248 | -30.894 | 0.44081 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common ATo has 71.05% equity, and with none in common it has 70.64%. ATo does better with a shared suit, by 0.41 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATo wins | Ties | JTo wins | ATo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 84 | 77.78 | 70.150 | 1.791 | 28.059 | 71.046 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 22.22 | 69.803 | 1.680 | 28.517 | 70.643 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 108 are ATo in one seat and JTo in the other (0.0066%); with the seats swapped too, 216 (0.0133%).
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. ATo averages $141.92 from the $200, up $41.92; JTo averages $58.08, down $41.92.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 701 for ATo, 281 for JTo and 18 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
Swap the hands and you get JTo with 29.04% against ATo with 70.96%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in AsTh against JdTc, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 108 specific ATo against JTo deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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