ATs vs 66: preflop equity

Dealt all in against each other, 66 takes 51.69% of the pot on average and ATs takes the other 48.31%.

ATs

48.31%

Wins 48.11%, ties 0.41%

66

51.69%

Wins 51.48%, ties 0.41%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

ATs against 66: the numbers

Exact preflop results for ATs against 66, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
ATs48.1080.41251.48048.314
6651.4800.41248.10851.686

Here a suited hand (ATs) meets a pocket pair (66). A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.

This is close to even money, with 66 a little ahead. Ties are 0.41% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.

Place 13 of 169 belongs to ATs and place 17 belongs to 66 in the ranking against a random hand.

Boards behind the percentages: 41,095,296 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
ATs19,770,000169,00021,156,000
6621,156,000169,00019,770,000

24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.

ATs against 66 read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
ATs0.9352.0791.9431.070
661.0701.9432.0790.935

The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.

Who is ahead on which flops

66 prefers low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), where it holds 77.76%, and likes rainbow flops topped by a ten or better least, where it holds 45.68%. ATs takes over on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, so the favorite before the flop is the underdog on those boards.

ATs against 66 by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsATs winsTies66 winsATs equity
Rainbow, ten or higher24.59554.2270.19545.57854.325
Rainbow, nine or lower6.31421.9440.58877.46822.238
Two-tone46.54549.8620.25749.88149.990
Monotone5.21247.6182.44949.93348.843
Paired17.33444.3910.45955.15044.621

Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.

Compared with a random hand

Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts ATs from 64.60% by -16.29 points and 66 from 63.29% by -11.60 points.

ATs and 66 here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
ATs, all flops48.31464.602-16.2880.74787
ATs, rainbow, ten or higher54.32564.602-10.2770.84092
ATs, rainbow, nine or lower22.23864.602-42.3640.34423
ATs, two-tone49.99064.602-14.6120.77382
ATs, monotone48.84364.602-15.7590.75606
ATs, paired44.62164.602-19.9810.69071
66, all flops51.68663.285-11.5990.81672
66, rainbow, ten or higher45.67563.285-17.6100.72174
66, rainbow, nine or lower77.76263.285+14.4771.22876
66, two-tone50.01063.285-13.2750.79023
66, monotone51.15763.285-12.1280.80836
66, paired55.37963.285-7.9060.87507

Does a shared suit matter?

Split by suits, the deals give 66 51.86% when the hands overlap in a suit and 51.51% when they do not. 66 does better with a shared suit, by 0.35 points.

ATs against 66 by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsATs winsTies66 winsATs equity
Share a suit1250.0047.9090.45451.63748.136
No shared suit1250.0048.3070.36951.32448.491

How often this matchup comes up

The class pair covers 24 combinations of specific cards in a fixed seat order, 0.0015% of 1,624,350, and 48 (0.0030%) in either order.

A worked example

Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average 66 takes back $103.38 of it, which is $3.38 more than it put in, and ATs takes back $96.62, $3.38 less than it put in.

In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 515 won outright by 66, about 481 won outright by ATs and about 4 split.

The same matchup from the other side

66 versus ATs is this same page seen from the other hand: 51.69% for 66, 48.31% for ATs.

AsTs against 6h6d is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.

How this was computed

The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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