ATs
58.05%
Wins 57.80%, ties 0.50%
QJs
41.95%
Wins 41.70%, ties 0.50%
ATs against QJs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 57.804 | 0.500 | 41.696 | 58.054 |
| QJs | 41.696 | 0.500 | 57.804 | 41.946 |
Here suited hands face each other, ATs on one side and QJs on the other. With no overlap in ranks, every card that pairs one hand is a card that does not pair the other.
ATs is ahead, but QJs is far from dead: it takes 417 of every 1,000 deals outright. A split pot comes up on 0.50% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
The hand ranking puts ATs at 13 and QJs at 28 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 15,836,000 | 137,000 | 11,423,000 |
| QJs | 11,423,000 | 137,000 | 15,836,000 |
The board total is exact, 16 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 1.384 | 1.730 | 2.398 | 0.723 |
| QJs | 0.723 | 2.398 | 1.730 | 1.384 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. ATs does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 73.39%, and worst on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, at 52.28%. ATs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | QJs wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.138 | 52.230 | 0.106 | 47.664 | 52.283 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 72.948 | 0.877 | 26.175 | 73.386 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 56.791 | 0.264 | 42.945 | 56.923 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 53.523 | 3.409 | 43.068 | 55.227 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 62.557 | 0.612 | 36.831 | 62.863 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Start from the random-hand figures, 64.60% for ATs and 60.26% for QJs. This opponent changes them by -6.55 and -18.31 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 58.054 | 64.602 | -6.548 | 0.89864 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 52.283 | 64.602 | -12.319 | 0.80931 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 73.386 | 64.602 | +8.784 | 1.13597 |
| ATs, two-tone | 56.923 | 64.602 | -7.679 | 0.88113 |
| ATs, monotone | 55.227 | 64.602 | -9.375 | 0.85488 |
| ATs, paired | 62.863 | 64.602 | -1.739 | 0.97308 |
| QJs, all flops | 41.946 | 60.259 | -18.313 | 0.69610 |
| QJs, rainbow, ten or higher | 47.717 | 60.259 | -12.542 | 0.79187 |
| QJs, rainbow, nine or lower | 26.614 | 60.259 | -33.645 | 0.44166 |
| QJs, two-tone | 43.077 | 60.259 | -17.182 | 0.71486 |
| QJs, monotone | 44.773 | 60.259 | -15.486 | 0.74301 |
| QJs, paired | 37.137 | 60.259 | -23.122 | 0.61629 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Does suit overlap move the numbers? ATs has 60.08% when the hands share a suit and 57.38% when they do not. ATs does better with a shared suit, by 2.70 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | QJs wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 59.788 | 0.577 | 39.635 | 60.077 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 57.143 | 0.475 | 42.382 | 57.380 |
How often this matchup comes up
Exactly 16 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0010% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 32, or 0.0020%.
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says ATs gets $116.10 of it on average and QJs gets $83.90.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 578 for ATs, 417 for QJs and 5 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for QJs against ATs, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 41.95% and 58.05%.
Keep exploring
Try AsTs against QhJh in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
The page is built from a full enumeration: 1,712,304 boards, every suit pattern of the 16 specific deals, both seven-card hands evaluated. A tie is worth half a win to each hand, and a board is tallied under each of its ten possible flops for the texture rows.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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