KQo vs 65s: preflop equity

The exact count puts KQo at 58.93% and 65s at 41.07% when the two hands see all five board cards.

KQo

58.93%

Wins 58.60%, ties 0.67%

65s

41.07%

Wins 40.73%, ties 0.67%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

KQo against 65s: the numbers

Exact preflop results for KQo against 65s, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
KQo58.5970.67040.73358.932
65s40.7330.67058.59741.068

KQo and 65s are an offsuit hand and a suited hand, in that order. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.

That is a modest edge, the kind that shows up over many hands and is easy to miss in one. Ties are part of the picture: 0.67% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.

In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, KQo is number 23 and 65s is number 128.

Boards behind the percentages: 82,190,592 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
KQo48,161,000551,00033,479,000
65s33,479,000551,00048,161,000

Exact total: 48 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.

KQo against 65s read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
KQo1.4351.7072.4550.697
65s0.6972.4551.7071.435

The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.

Who is ahead on which flops

If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: KQo holds 67.72% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and 29.73% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). Watch for low rainbow flops (nine high or lower): on those flops 65s holds the better equity.

KQo against 65s by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsKQo winsTies65s winsKQo equity
Rainbow, ten or higher24.71767.5830.27232.14567.719
Rainbow, nine or lower6.31329.2990.86969.83229.734
Two-tone46.66757.1110.37742.51257.300
Monotone5.21256.2612.49441.24557.508
Paired17.09161.1951.41537.39061.902

A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.

Compared with a random hand

Relative to a random opponent, KQo changes by -2.53 points (baseline 61.46%) and 65s by -2.06 points (baseline 43.13%).

KQo and 65s here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
KQo, all flops58.93261.456-2.5240.95893
KQo, rainbow, ten or higher67.71961.456+6.2631.10191
KQo, rainbow, nine or lower29.73461.456-31.7220.48383
KQo, two-tone57.30061.456-4.1560.93237
KQo, monotone57.50861.456-3.9480.93576
KQo, paired61.90261.456+0.4461.00726
65s, all flops41.06843.133-2.0650.95212
65s, rainbow, ten or higher32.28143.133-10.8520.74841
65s, rainbow, nine or lower70.26643.133+27.1331.62905
65s, two-tone42.70043.133-0.4330.98996
65s, monotone42.49243.133-0.6410.98514
65s, paired38.09843.133-5.0350.88327

Does a shared suit matter?

Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, KQo has 59.62%; looking only at deals where they do not, 58.24%. KQo does better with a shared suit, by 1.38 points.

KQo against 65s by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsKQo winsTies65s winsKQo equity
Share a suit2450.0059.2650.71040.02559.620
No shared suit2450.0057.9300.62941.44158.244

How often this matchup comes up

Counting specific cards, KQo against 65s appears in 48 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0030%), and in 96 when the seats are swapped too (0.0059%).

A worked example

Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average KQo takes back $117.86 of it, which is $17.86 more than it put in, and 65s takes back $82.14, $17.86 less than it put in.

Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 586 for KQo, 407 for 65s and 7 tied.

The same matchup from the other side

65s against KQo adds nothing new: it is 41.07% for 65s and 58.93% for KQo, the same figures reversed.

Open the calculator with KsQh against 6d5d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.

How this was computed

Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 48 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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