KTo vs 65s: preflop equity

The exact count puts KTo at 59.67% and 65s at 40.33% when the two hands see all five board cards.

KTo

59.67%

Wins 59.34%, ties 0.67%

65s

40.33%

Wins 39.99%, ties 0.67%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

KTo against 65s: the numbers

Exact preflop results for KTo against 65s, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
KTo59.3350.66939.99659.670
65s39.9960.66959.33540.330

We compare an offsuit hand with a suited hand. With no overlap in ranks, every card that pairs one hand is a card that does not pair the other.

KTo is ahead, but 65s is far from dead: it takes 400 of every 1,000 deals outright. Ties are 0.67% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.

In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, KTo is number 33 and 65s is number 128.

Boards behind the percentages: 82,190,592 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
KTo48,768,000550,00032,873,000
65s32,873,000550,00048,768,000

The total is exact: 48 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.

KTo against 65s read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
KTo1.4801.6852.5000.676
65s0.6762.5001.6851.480

The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.

Who is ahead on which flops

KTo prefers rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, where it holds 68.29%, and likes low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) least, where it holds 31.91%. On low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) the numbers flip and 65s is the one ahead.

KTo against 65s by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsKTo winsTies65s winsKTo equity
Rainbow, ten or higher24.71768.1330.32131.54668.294
Rainbow, nine or lower6.31331.5690.67767.75431.907
Two-tone46.66757.9410.37241.68758.127
Monotone5.21256.8602.48640.65458.103
Paired17.09161.4321.42437.14462.144

A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.

Compared with a random hand

Relative to a random opponent, KTo changes by -0.07 points (baseline 59.74%) and 65s by -2.80 points (baseline 43.13%).

KTo and 65s here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
KTo, all flops59.67059.739-0.0690.99884
KTo, rainbow, ten or higher68.29459.739+8.5551.14321
KTo, rainbow, nine or lower31.90759.739-27.8320.53411
KTo, two-tone58.12759.739-1.6120.97302
KTo, monotone58.10359.739-1.6360.97261
KTo, paired62.14459.739+2.4051.04026
65s, all flops40.33043.133-2.8030.93501
65s, rainbow, ten or higher31.70643.133-11.4270.73508
65s, rainbow, nine or lower68.09343.133+24.9601.57868
65s, two-tone41.87343.133-1.2600.97079
65s, monotone41.89743.133-1.2360.97134
65s, paired37.85643.133-5.2770.87766

Does a shared suit matter?

Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, KTo has 60.37%; looking only at deals where they do not, 58.97%. KTo does better with a shared suit, by 1.40 points.

KTo against 65s by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsKTo winsTies65s winsKTo equity
Share a suit2450.0060.0110.71039.27960.366
No shared suit2450.0058.6600.62740.71358.973

How often this matchup comes up

Exactly 48 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0030% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 96, or 0.0059%.

A worked example

With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $119.34 for KTo and $80.66 for 65s; the first side gains $19.34 per all-in and the second gives up $19.34.

Per 1,000 deals: KTo wins about 593, 65s wins about 400, and about 7 end in a split pot.

The same matchup from the other side

65s against KTo adds nothing new: it is 40.33% for 65s and 59.67% for KTo, the same figures reversed.

Open the calculator with KsTh against 6d5d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.

How this was computed

This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 48 ways to deal one KTo and one 65s without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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