TT vs AKo: preflop equity

If TT and AKo get all the chips in before the flop, TT owns 56.88% of the pot in the long run and AKo owns 43.12%.

TT

56.88%

Wins 56.68%, ties 0.39%

AKo

43.12%

Wins 42.93%, ties 0.39%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

TT against AKo: the numbers

Exact preflop results for TT against AKo, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
TT56.6810.39142.92856.877
AKo42.9280.39156.68143.123

The matchup pits a pocket pair against an offsuit hand. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.

TT is ahead, but AKo is far from dead: it takes 429 of every 1,000 deals outright. The tie share is 0.39%: on those boards the pot is chopped and neither hand wins outright.

Ranked by equity against a random hand, TT is number 5 of the 169 starting hands and AKo is number 12.

Boards behind the percentages: 123,285,888 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
TT69,880,000482,00052,924,000
AKo52,924,000482,00069,880,000

Exact total: 72 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.

TT against AKo read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
TT1.3191.7642.3290.758
AKo0.7582.3291.7641.319

The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.

Who is ahead on which flops

The flop changes the picture. TT does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 74.39%, and worst on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, at 50.01%. TT stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.

TT against AKo by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsTT winsTiesAKo winsTT equity
Rainbow, ten or higher23.26049.9400.14349.91750.012
Rainbow, nine or lower7.77173.8821.02425.09474.394
Two-tone46.48555.5460.34944.10555.721
Monotone5.15151.8771.72446.39952.739
Paired17.33362.4880.15637.35662.566

A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.

Compared with a random hand

Relative to a random opponent, TT changes by -18.13 points (baseline 75.01%) and AKo by -22.20 points (baseline 65.32%).

TT and AKo here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
TT, all flops56.87775.012-18.1350.75824
TT, rainbow, ten or higher50.01275.012-25.0000.66672
TT, rainbow, nine or lower74.39475.012-0.6180.99176
TT, two-tone55.72175.012-19.2910.74283
TT, monotone52.73975.012-22.2730.70307
TT, paired62.56675.012-12.4460.83408
AKo, all flops43.12365.320-22.1970.66018
AKo, rainbow, ten or higher49.98865.320-15.3320.76528
AKo, rainbow, nine or lower25.60665.320-39.7140.39201
AKo, two-tone44.27965.320-21.0410.67788
AKo, monotone47.26165.320-18.0590.72353
AKo, paired37.43465.320-27.8860.57309

Does a shared suit matter?

Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, TT has 56.80%; looking only at deals where they do not, 57.28%. TT does better with no shared suit, by 0.48 points.

TT against AKo by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsTT winsTiesAKo winsTT equity
Share a suit6083.3356.5940.40742.99956.797
No shared suit1216.6757.1200.31142.56957.276

How often this matchup comes up

How often does it happen? 72 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0044%) are TT against AKo, and 144 (0.0089%) if either hand may sit in either seat.

A worked example

Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. TT's equity of 56.88% is worth $113.76, a $13.76 edge, and AKo's 43.12% is worth $86.24, which is $13.76 under its stake.

Think in thousands: about 567 of 1,000 go to TT, about 429 go to AKo, and about 4 are chopped.

The same matchup from the other side

AKo versus TT is this same page seen from the other hand: 43.12% for AKo, 56.88% for TT.

Try TsTh against AdKc in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.

How this was computed

Method: exact enumeration. The 72 specific deals are grouped by suit pattern, each is run against all 1,712,304 boards, and both seven-card hands are scored. Equity adds half of every tie, and flop textures are tallied over the ten flops inside each board.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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