Are outcomes and decisions the same thing?
No. A downswing describes outcomes, and your decisions can be sound throughout. They can also slip during it, and the only way to tell which happened is to look at the decisions separately from the outcomes. Mixing the two is called resulting, and it is the most common error in a hard stretch.
What changes in play during a downswing?
Two directions are common. Some players tighten: tighter folds, smaller sizing, avoiding close spots. Others force action: more hands, bigger bets, calls to get back to even. Each change is something you can check in the hand history, which is why the review below starts from the hands.
How do I run a decision review?
PickChoose ten hands from the stretch, including some you folded.
PriceFor each, note the pot odds or equity at the decision and whether the choice matched it.
CountCount how many matched your plan.
What is the review for?
To find the one or two spots that changed, not everything. A review that ends with "I need to fix my whole game" is too big to use. A review that ends with "my river calls got too wide" is a single change you can write down and test.
What rules should I set for the stretch?
Plan the session length and a stop rule in advance. Decide how many sessions you will play before you re-read your plan, so you are not rewriting it after every loss. The arithmetic behind how long a stretch can last is in the variance guide.
What does a decision log look like?
One line per hand: the spot, the price of the call, the equity you had, and whether the choice matched. The rows below show the format with two computed spots; replace them with your own hands.
| Spot | Equity the call needs | Chance to hit | What the price says |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flush draw on the flop, half-pot bet | 25.00% | 34.97% by the river | Call: the chance to hit is higher |
| Gutshot on the turn, pot-size bet | 33.33% | 8.70% on the river | Fold: the chance to hit is lower |
The log is for decisions you can price. Add a column for the hands you could not price, because those are where study helps most.
How long should I wait before I change my plan?
Set the number of sessions before the stretch begins, and re-read the plan only when you reach it. Changing the plan after every loss turns every outcome into a verdict. A fixed review date works the other way: it lets you keep playing the plan through a bad stretch because you know exactly when you will look at it.
What should I do this week?
Pick ten hands from the last stretch of play and run each through the matching calculator.
Mark each hand: decision matched the numbers, or did not.
Write one change for the spot that came up most often.
Questions
- How do I know if my decisions or the cards are the problem?
- Review a sample of hands against the numbers at the time of each decision. If most of them match your plan, the stretch was outcomes. If a pattern shows up, that is the spot to work on.
- Should I change my strategy in a downswing?
- Change it only for spots the review shows were off the plan. Changing everything at once makes the next stretch harder to read.
- How many hands should I review?
- Ten is a workable start. Review more if the pattern is unclear.