How often does the better hand lose?
More often than most players expect. Take the best possible case before the flop, pocket aces against pocket kings, counted over every five-card board: the aces win 81.72%, tie 0.46% and lose 17.82%. A hand with more equity than any other still loses roughly one time in six, and almost every matchup is closer than that.
| Outcome for the aces | Share of boards |
|---|---|
| Win | 81.72% |
| Tie | 0.46% |
| Lose | 17.82% |
Why is the next hand the risky one?
Because the decision most likely to slip is the one right after the loss. The plays that change are calls and sizing: calling a little too wide to get the chips back, or betting a little too big to make one pot count for two. Neither feels like a mistake while you are making it, which is why a rule written in advance helps.
What should I do in the first five minutes?
Step awayIf the game allows, stand up or sit out a hand.
Write it downNote the hand in one line: cards, position, action, board.
Hold the verdictDecide nothing about the hand until later, when you can run the numbers.
How do I check the decision, not the outcome?
Ask whether the decision was right given the equity and the pot odds at the moment you made it. A half-pot bet, for example, needs 25.00% equity to call, so a call with more than that was fine whether or not the river helped you. Judging a choice by its outcome is called resulting, and it is the main way one bad card changes the next ten decisions.
How do I go back to the game?
Use a fixed first-hand check when you sit back down: position, stack and the price of the call in front of you. Add one rule for leaving, such as stepping away again if two named things change, like your action speed and your bet sizes.
What about a bad beat where the opponent hits a draw?
The same arithmetic applies. A flush draw has nine outs, and from the flop it completes by the river 34.97% of the time, so the opponent who called your bet with a flush draw and got there was making a play the numbers support in the right spots. That does not make the outcome pleasant. It means the loss tells you nothing about your bet unless the price was wrong, and the way to find out is to check the price.
What do I write after a hard hand?
Write the hand in one line: cards, position, action, board.
Run it through the equity calculator and write the number beside the line.
Write whether the decision was right given that number, ignoring the outcome.
Write the first-hand check you will run when you sit back down.
Questions
- How often does a hand that is ahead lose?
- It loses the share shown by the equity calculator for that matchup. Pocket aces against pocket kings lose 17.82% of boards, and most matchups are closer than that, so a loss with the better hand is a regular event.
- Should I leave the table after a bad beat?
- A scheduled break helps when the game allows it. The rule is yours, written in advance, so that you are not deciding in the moment.
- How do I know if I made a mistake?
- Compare the decision with the equity and the pot odds at the moment you made it. If the call needed less equity than you had, the decision was sound, whatever the next card was.