Verdict
Call
15 outs, flop, two-thirds-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come54.12%
- Equity the call needs$66.67 into a pot of $233.3328.57%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+25.55 points
How the verdict is reached
A two-thirds-pot bet needs 28.57% equity from the call, and 15 outs on the flop supply 54.12%. Clearing the price by 25.55 points is far from a close decision.
Count a flush draw with an open-ended straight draw and you land on 15 outs. With 47 cards unseen, the next card helps 31.91% of the time.
One hand, in dollars
- Pot before the bet$100
- The bet$66.67
- Chips you put in$66.67
- Total pot after calling$233.33
- Gain on a hit$166.67
- Net loss when you miss$66.67
- Your chance to hit54.12%
- Average value of the call+$59.61
- Equity needed to break even28.57%
- Exact margin over the price+25.5451 points
- Fractional outs at the price7.20 outs
- Outs to spare, exactly+7.80 outs
Suppose a hit wins the entire pot, a miss loses your call, and no more betting follows. The average gain is $90.19, the average loss is $30.59, and calling gains $59.61 on average, or +0.894 per dollar called.
Odds say the same thing. Hitting is 0.85 : 1 against, and the pot lays 2.5 : 1.
Skipping your own call in the pot gives a price of 40.00% where 28.57% is correct, and a margin of +14.1166 points instead of +25.55 points. The starting pot gives 66.67% and a margin of -12.5501 points, which is wrong by even more.
Reverse implied odds and your margin
Against this bet the draw needs 8 outs at the least. You have 7 outs more than that, so the call has some room.
Reverse implied odds are the risk here. A hit that costs you $110.14 later, 1.65 times your call, is where the call stops being worth it.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 28.57% | +25.55 points | +$59.61 | Call |
| $10 | 29.85% | +24.27 points | +$54.19 | Call |
| $25 | 32.00% | +22.12 points | +$46.08 | Call |
| $50 | 36.36% | +17.75 points | +$32.55 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | +4.12 points | +$5.49 | Call |
The next card against the whole runout
Use either number and the verdict is a call. The next card is 31.91%, the full runout is 54.12%, and the price is 28.57%.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 54.12% | +25.5451 points | +$59.61 | Call |
| Next card only | 31.91% | +3.3435 points | +$7.80 | Call |
Nearby draws
Draws close to yours, on the same street and against the same bet: the price is fixed at 28.57%, and each out moves the chance about 2.87 points.
The same draw against other bet sizes
How much does bet size matter? The price climbs from 16.67% to 44.44% across the list, while 15 outs stay at 54.12%.
Your chance is high enough that any bet in the table is a call. All 12 sizes clear with 54.12%.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +37.45 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +34.12 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +31.89 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +29.12 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | +25.55 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +24.12 points | Call |
| pot-size | 33.33% | +20.78 points | Call |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +18.40 points | Call |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +16.62 points | Call |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | +14.12 points | Call |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | +11.26 points | Call |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | +9.67 points | Call |
How this is computed
The chance to hit is the exact closed form, with no simulation. From the flop, 496 of the 1,081 possible pairs of unseen cards hold no out, so the chance is 1 minus 496 / 1,081, which is 54.12%.
The price is call / (pot + bet + call), here $66.67 / $233.33 = 28.57%, and the margin is your chance minus it. The page assumes you call the whole bet, win the whole pot whenever you hit, and see no more betting. All 47 unseen cards are equally likely and none is removed for an opponent's hand, so this is the chance to hit your outs, not your equity against one hand.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Is a call correct with 15 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop?
Your chance, 54.12%, set against the 28.57% price gives +25.55 points and a call. With a $100 pot, a $66.67 call and no more betting, the average value of the call is +$59.61.
How many outs make a call correct against two thirds of the pot on the flop?
A call starts to work at 8 outs: 31.45% to hit versus 28.57% needed. One out fewer drops the chance to 27.84%. You hold 15, which is 7 more than the minimum.
When is the next-card chance the better comparison?
It depends on what follows, but here it does not matter. If the hand ends here, count both cards: 54.12%. If another bet is coming on the turn, count one card: 31.91%. Against 28.57%, both say call.
Related pages
Check your own hands against the numbers
Bring a hand you played and we will work through the price, the chance to hit and the decision together.
Book a session