Verdict
Call
17 outs, turn, third-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the riverone card to come36.96%
- Equity the call needs$33.33 into a pot of $166.6720.00%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+16.96 points
Reading the verdict
36.96% against 20.00%: the draw beats the price by 16.96 points. On this turn against a third-pot bet, that is a comfortable call.
17 out of 46 unseen cards is a combined count rather than one named draw, and one card hits 36.96% of the time.
The same spot in dollars
- Starting pot$100
- Your opponent bets$33.33
- Cost to call$33.33
- Pot after your call$166.67
- Gain on a hit$133.33
- Net loss when you miss$33.33
- How often you hit36.96%
- Calling is worth, on average+$28.26
- Break-even equity20.00%
- Unrounded margin+16.9565 points
- Fractional outs at the price9.20 outs
- Outs to spare, exactly+7.80 outs
Price it in dollars, with no later bets: win the whole pot on a hit, lose the call on a miss. That averages $49.28 in and $21.01 out, so calling gains $28.26 on average at +0.848 per dollar called.
Read as odds: 1.71 : 1 against you, 4 : 1 from the pot.
A common slip is to divide the bet by the pot after the bet but before your call. That gives 25.00% instead of 20.00% and would put your margin at +11.9565 points. Using the bet over the starting pot, 33.33%, is further off and would put it at +3.6232 points.
Where the call would flip
Against this bet the draw needs 10 outs at the least. You have 7 outs more than that, so the call has some room.
Later betting can cut into the call. You may surrender $76.47, or 2.29 times your call, after a hit and still break even.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 20.00% | +16.96 points | +$28.26 | Call |
| $10 | 21.28% | +15.68 points | +$24.57 | Call |
| $25 | 23.53% | +13.43 points | +$19.02 | Call |
| $50 | 28.57% | +8.39 points | +$9.78 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | -13.04 points | -$8.70 | Fold |
How the turn changes the draw
One street later the draw is weaker. The same 17 outs hit 59.76% from the flop and 36.96% from the turn, a drop of 22.80 points, and the verdict on the flop would have been a call.
| Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flop, two cards to come | 59.76% | +39.7595 points | +$66.27 | Call |
| Turn, one card to come | 36.96% | +16.9565 points | +$28.26 | Call |
The call as outs change
A few outs either way, against a third-pot bet that needs 20.00%. The chance climbs about 2.17 points with each extra out.
Every bet size, one draw
Look down the margin column to see where the draw stops paying. Every row uses 17 outs on the turn and a bet of a different size.
Break-even for this draw is a bet of 1.42 times the pot ($141.67 on a $100 pot). Sizes below it call, sizes above it fold, and 8 of the 12 sizes are calls in the table.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +20.29 points | Call |
| third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +16.96 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +14.73 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +11.96 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +8.39 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +6.96 points | Call |
| pot-size | 33.33% | +3.62 points | Call |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +1.24 points | Call |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -0.54 points | Fold |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | -3.04 points | Fold |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -5.90 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -7.49 points | Fold |
How this is computed
Everything is computed from the closed form. The river chance is 17 outs over 46 unseen cards, 36.96%.
Four assumptions sit behind the verdict: you call the full bet, a hit wins the entire pot, no money goes in after the call, and every one of the 46 unseen cards is equally likely. The price is $33.33 / $166.67 = 20.00%. No card is taken out for what an opponent might hold.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Call or fold with 17 outs on the turn against a bet of a third of the pot?
The answer is a call, with a margin of +16.96 points. 17 outs on the turn reach 36.96%; a bet of $33.33 into $100 needs 20.00%. Win the whole pot on a hit and lose the call on a miss, and the call is worth +$28.26 on average.
What is the minimum number of outs for a third-pot bet on the turn?
Look for 10 outs. That is the smallest count whose chance, 21.74%, reaches the 20.00% price; 9 manages 19.57%. You have 17, so you are 7 ahead of the minimum.
When is the next-card chance the better comparison?
The question belongs to the flop. On the turn, 17 outs among 46 cards give 36.96% either way, and against 20.00% that is a call by 16.96 points.
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