Verdict
Call
18 outs, turn, third-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the riverone card to come39.13%
- Equity the call needs$33.33 into a pot of $166.6720.00%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+19.13 points
Comparing the draw with the bet
The price is 20.00% and your chance is 39.13%. You sit 19.13 points above the line, which is a wide gap, so you call.
18 out of 46 unseen cards is a combined count rather than one named draw, and one card hits 39.13% of the time.
A $100 pot, step by step
- Pot before the bet$100
- Bet$33.33
- Chips you put in$33.33
- Pot with your call in$166.67
- Net gain when you hit$133.33
- Loss on a miss$33.33
- Your chance to hit39.13%
- Expected value of calling+$31.88
- Break-even equity20.00%
- Your chance minus the price, unrounded+19.1304 points
- Outs that exactly reach the price9.20 outs
- Outs above the price+8.80 outs
Suppose a hit wins the entire pot, a miss loses your call, and no more betting follows. The average gain is $52.17, the average loss is $20.29, and calling gains $31.88 on average, or +0.957 per dollar called.
As odds, 1.56 : 1 against hitting meets pot odds of 4 : 1.
A common slip is to divide the bet by the pot after the bet but before your call. That gives 25.00% instead of 20.00% and would put your margin at +14.1304 points. Using the bet over the starting pot, 33.33%, is further off and would put it at +5.7971 points.
Your cushion over the price
10 outs is the line for a third-pot bet on the turn. Your 18 sit 8 outs above it, and the chance at the line is 21.74%.
Think of $81.48 as your safety room: the most you can give back after a hit, 2.44 times your call, with the call still level.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 20.00% | +19.13 points | +$31.88 | Call |
| $10 | 21.28% | +17.85 points | +$27.97 | Call |
| $25 | 23.53% | +15.60 points | +$22.10 | Call |
| $50 | 28.57% | +10.56 points | +$12.32 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | -10.87 points | -$7.25 | Fold |
One card to come instead of two
18 outs are worth less on the turn. The chance moves from 62.44% on the flop to 39.13% now, a fall of 23.31 points, and the flop verdict was a call against the same 20.00% price.
| Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flop, two cards to come | 62.44% | +42.4422 points | +$70.74 | Call |
| Turn, one card to come | 39.13% | +19.1304 points | +$31.88 | Call |
Neighbors of this draw
Draws close to yours, on the same street and against the same bet: the price is fixed at 20.00%, and each out moves the chance about 2.17 points.
| Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 outs | 34.78% | +14.78 points | Call |
| 17 outs | 36.96% | +16.96 points | Call |
| 18 outs, this page | 39.13% | +19.13 points | Call |
| 19 outs | 41.30% | +21.30 points | Call |
| 20 outs | 43.48% | +23.48 points | Call |
The draw across every bet size
The same 18 outs on the turn meet a different price at each bet size. The table runs from the smallest bet to the largest, and the row for this page is marked.
A bet larger than 1.80 times the pot ($180 on a $100 pot) asks for more than 39.13%. For this draw, 9 of the 12 sizes are calls.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +22.46 points | Call |
| third-pot, this page | 20.00% | +19.13 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +16.91 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +14.13 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +10.56 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +9.13 points | Call |
| pot-size | 33.33% | +5.80 points | Call |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +3.42 points | Call |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +1.63 points | Call |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | -0.87 points | Fold |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -3.73 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -5.31 points | Fold |
How this is computed
No sampling is involved. On the turn there are 46 unseen cards and 18 outs among them, which gives 18 / 46 = 39.13%.
These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $33.33 of a $166.67 pot (20.00%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 46 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
How should you respond to a third-pot bet on the turn when you hold 18 outs?
Verdict: call. A third-pot bet asks for 20.00% and you have 39.13%, a margin of +19.13 points. For a $33.33 call into a $100 pot, with no later bets and the whole pot won on a hit, the average is +$31.88.
How many outs are enough to continue against a bet of a third of the pot on the turn?
10 outs is the line. At 10 the chance is 21.74%, enough for 20.00%; one fewer gives 19.57%, which is not. Your 18 outs sit 8 above it on the turn, at 39.13%.
Does it matter whether you count one card or two against a third-pot bet?
On the turn only one card is left, so the by-the-river chance and the next-card chance are the same, 39.13%. Against the 20.00% price that is a call, with a margin of +19.13 points.
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