Verdict
Fold
2 outs, turn, three-quarter-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the riverone card to come4.35%
- Equity the call needs$75 into a pot of $25030.00%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price-25.65 points
Comparing the draw with the bet
The price is 30.00% and your chance is 4.35%. You sit 25.65 points below the line, which is a wide gap, so you fold.
Holding a pocket pair that wants a set gives you exactly 2 outs, out of 46 unseen cards. One card hits 4.35% of the time.
Putting dollars on the call
- Pot when the bet arrives$100
- Bet$75
- You call$75
- Pot with your call in$250
- You can win on a hit$175
- What a miss costs$75
- How often you hit4.35%
- Average value of the call-$64.13
- Price of the call30.00%
- Exact margin over the price-25.6522 points
- Break-even count of outs13.80 outs
- Your outs minus break-even outs-11.80 outs
Stay with simple rules: the whole pot on a hit, the call lost on a miss, no more money in. Under them calling loses $64.13 on average. The hit side averages $7.61, the miss side $71.74, and each dollar called returns -0.855.
In odds, you face 22 : 1 against you and the pot pays 2.33 : 1.
The price is 30.00% because your call goes into the pot too. Leave it out and you get 42.86%, a margin of -38.5093 points that does not exist; use the starting pot instead and 75.00% puts the margin at -70.6522 points.
What it would take to call
With 4.35% to hit, break-even sits $1,475 higher than the pot shows. Put another way, later bets must add 19.67 times your call.
The call starts to work at 14 outs, where the chance is 30.43%. Your 2 outs fall 12 outs below that.
| Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 30.00% | -25.65 points | -$64.13 | Fold |
| $50 | 25.00% | -20.65 points | -$61.96 | Fold |
| $100 | 21.43% | -17.08 points | -$59.78 | Fold |
| $250 | 15.00% | -10.65 points | -$53.26 | Fold |
| $500 | 10.00% | -5.65 points | -$42.39 | Fold |
The same draw on the flop
Only the river remains, so there is just one number: 4.35%. For reference, the same draw on the flop was 8.42%, 4.07 points higher, which against 30.00% is a fold.
| Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flop, two cards to come | 8.42% | -21.5819 points | -$53.95 | Fold |
| Turn, one card to come | 4.35% | -25.6522 points | -$64.13 | Fold |
A few outs either way
Here are the neighbors of 2 outs, priced against the same 30.00%. One more out lifts your chance by about 2.17 points.
| Outs | By the river | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 out | 2.17% | -27.83 points | Fold |
| 2 outs, this page | 4.35% | -25.65 points | Fold |
| 3 outs | 6.52% | -23.48 points | Fold |
| 4 outs | 8.70% | -21.30 points | Fold |
| 5 outs | 10.87% | -19.13 points | Fold |
The same draw against other bet sizes
Bet size sets the price, so the verdict changes as you scan the table. The three-quarter-pot bet of this page is marked in the first column.
2 outs stop paying at 0.05 times the pot ($4.76 on a $100 pot), below the smallest size listed. The call fails at all 12 bet sizes.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | -12.32 points | Fold |
| third-pot | 20.00% | -15.65 points | Fold |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -17.87 points | Fold |
| half-pot | 25.00% | -20.65 points | Fold |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | -24.22 points | Fold |
| three-quarter-pot, this page | 30.00% | -25.65 points | Fold |
| pot-size | 33.33% | -28.99 points | Fold |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -31.37 points | Fold |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -33.15 points | Fold |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | -35.65 points | Fold |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -38.51 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -40.10 points | Fold |
Pages that use the same math
How this is computed
Everything is computed from the closed form. The river chance is 2 outs over 46 unseen cards, 4.35%.
Four assumptions sit behind the verdict: you call the full bet, a hit wins the entire pot, no money goes in after the call, and every one of the 46 unseen cards is equally likely. The price is $75 / $250 = 30.00%. No card is taken out for what an opponent might hold.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Should you call a three-quarter-pot bet with 2 outs on the turn?
Compare 4.35%, your chance to hit by the river, with 30.00%, the equity a three-quarter-pot bet needs. The gap is -25.65 points, so this is a fold. In dollars on a $100 pot, the call averages -$64.13 when no more betting follows.
What is the minimum number of outs for a three-quarter-pot bet on the turn?
The fewest outs that call a three-quarter-pot bet on the turn is 14. With 14 outs you hit 30.43%, which reaches the 30.00% price, while 13 outs hit only 28.26%. You have 2, so you are 12 below that count.
How many cards should you count when a three-quarter-pot bet arrives on the turn?
Both views collapse into 4.35%. Against the 30.00% price of a three-quarter-pot bet, that leaves -25.65 points and a fold, and the choice between one card and two no longer applies.
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