Verdict
Fold
7 outs, flop, two-thirds-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come27.84%
- Equity the call needs$66.67 into a pot of $233.3328.57%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price-0.73 points
Reading the verdict
Folding beats calling by a hair. 27.84% misses 28.57% by 0.73 points, so the call loses a little on average.
Few single draws land on exactly 7 outs, so add up each way to improve and check the total. One card hits 14.89% of the time here.
One hand, in dollars
- Pot when the bet arrives$100
- Your opponent bets$66.67
- Chips you put in$66.67
- Total pot after calling$233.33
- Net gain when you hit$166.67
- Loss on a miss$66.67
- How often you hit27.84%
- Expected value of calling-$1.70
- Equity needed to break even28.57%
- Your chance minus the price, unrounded-0.7268 points
- Break-even count of outs7.20 outs
- Your outs minus break-even outs-0.20 outs
Over many identical spots, with the whole pot won on every hit, the call lost on every miss and no extra betting, calling loses $1.70 on average. Hits bring in $46.41, misses cost $48.10, and the ratio is -0.025 per dollar called.
As odds, 2.59 : 1 against hitting meets pot odds of 2.5 : 1.
The price is 28.57% because your call goes into the pot too. Leave it out and you get 40.00%, a margin of -12.1554 points that does not exist; use the starting pot instead and 66.67% puts the margin at -38.8221 points.
The extra winnings a call would need
To make the call break even you would need to win another $6.09 after you hit, which is 0.09 times your call. Anything above that makes the call a good one.
Outs are the other lever. At 8 outs you reach 31.45% by the river, enough for a two-thirds-pot bet, and you are 1 out away.
| Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 28.57% | -0.73 points | -$1.70 | Fold |
| $50 | 23.53% | +4.32 points | +$12.23 | Call |
| $100 | 20.00% | +7.84 points | +$26.15 | Call |
| $250 | 13.79% | +14.05 points | +$67.92 | Call |
| $500 | 9.09% | +18.75 points | +$137.53 | Call |
Two cards to come, or just one
Whether you count one card or two, the answer is a fold. The river figure is 27.84%, the next-card figure is 14.89%, and both are measured against 28.57%.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 27.84% | -0.7268 points | -$1.70 | Fold |
| Next card only | 14.89% | -13.6778 points | -$31.91 | Fold |
Neighbors of this draw
Move up or down a few outs and watch the verdict. Every extra out is worth about 3.61 points on the flop, and the price stays at 28.57%.
Bigger and smaller bets
One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 7 outs on the flop.
The largest bet this draw can call on the flop is 0.63 times the pot ($62.84 on a $100 pot). 7 outs call 4 of the 12 bet sizes listed.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +11.18 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +7.84 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +5.62 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +2.84 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -0.73 points | Fold |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -2.16 points | Fold |
| pot-size | 33.33% | -5.49 points | Fold |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -7.87 points | Fold |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -9.66 points | Fold |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | -12.16 points | Fold |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -15.01 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -16.60 points | Fold |
How this is computed
The chance to hit is the exact closed form, with no simulation. From the flop, 780 of the 1,081 possible pairs of unseen cards hold no out, so the chance is 1 minus 780 / 1,081, which is 27.84%.
Four assumptions sit behind the verdict: you call the full bet, a hit wins the entire pot, no money goes in after the call, and every one of the 47 unseen cards is equally likely. The price is $66.67 / $233.33 = 28.57%. No card is taken out for what an opponent might hold.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Is a call correct with 7 outs against a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop?
The verdict is fold. Your chance is 27.84% and the price is 28.57%, which leaves -0.73 points. On a $100 pot with a $66.67 bet, calling is worth -$1.70 on average if the whole pot is won on a hit and nothing more is bet.
How many outs make a call correct against two thirds of the pot on the flop?
The fewest outs that call a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop is 8. With 8 outs you hit 31.45%, which reaches the 28.57% price, while 7 outs hit only 27.84%. You have 7, so you are 1 below that count.
Which hit chance fits a two-thirds-pot bet on the flop?
Both figures are right for their own situation: 27.84% with no more betting, 14.89% when the turn brings a bet. Facing 28.57%, each one gives a fold.
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