22
49.77%
Wins 48.01%, ties 3.52%
53s
50.23%
Wins 48.47%, ties 3.52%
22 against 53s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 48.013 | 3.521 | 48.466 | 49.773 |
| 53s | 48.466 | 3.521 | 48.013 | 50.227 |
22 is a pocket pair and 53s is a suited hand. A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.
53s leads by less than 1 points of equity, so the result of any one deal is close to a toss-up. Ties are part of the picture: 3.52% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
Place 87 of 169 belongs to 22 and place 146 belongs to 53s in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 19,731,000 | 1,447,000 | 19,917,000 |
| 53s | 19,917,000 | 1,447,000 | 19,731,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.991 | 2.083 | 2.063 | 1.009 |
| 53s | 1.009 | 2.063 | 2.083 | 0.991 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, 53s peaks at 60.94% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 46.40% on paired flops. 22 takes over on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and paired flops, so the favorite before the flop is the underdog on those boards.
| Flop | Share of flops | 22 wins | Ties | 53s wins | 22 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 51.427 | 1.920 | 46.653 | 52.387 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 38.110 | 1.908 | 59.982 | 39.064 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 47.231 | 1.819 | 50.950 | 48.140 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 46.565 | 5.032 | 48.403 | 49.081 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 48.350 | 10.498 | 41.152 | 53.599 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
How much does the opponent matter? Compared with its random-hand 50.33%, 22 changes by -0.56 points, and 53s, from 39.69%, by +10.54.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22, all flops | 49.773 | 50.334 | -0.561 | 0.98885 |
| 22, rainbow, ten or higher | 52.387 | 50.334 | +2.053 | 1.04079 |
| 22, rainbow, nine or lower | 39.064 | 50.334 | -11.270 | 0.77610 |
| 22, two-tone | 48.140 | 50.334 | -2.194 | 0.95641 |
| 22, monotone | 49.081 | 50.334 | -1.253 | 0.97511 |
| 22, paired | 53.599 | 50.334 | +3.265 | 1.06487 |
| 53s, all flops | 50.227 | 39.693 | +10.534 | 1.26539 |
| 53s, rainbow, ten or higher | 47.613 | 39.693 | +7.920 | 1.19953 |
| 53s, rainbow, nine or lower | 60.936 | 39.693 | +21.243 | 1.53518 |
| 53s, two-tone | 51.860 | 39.693 | +12.167 | 1.30653 |
| 53s, monotone | 50.919 | 39.693 | +11.226 | 1.28282 |
| 53s, paired | 46.401 | 39.693 | +6.708 | 1.16900 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Looking only at deals where the hands share a suit, 53s has 50.10%; looking only at deals where they do not, 50.35%. 53s does better with no shared suit, by 0.25 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 22 wins | Ties | 53s wins | 22 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 48.131 | 3.540 | 48.329 | 49.901 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 47.894 | 3.503 | 48.603 | 49.646 |
How often this matchup comes up
Out of 1,624,350 ways to deal two seats two cards each, 24 are 22 in one seat and 53s in the other (0.0015%); with the seats swapped too, 48 (0.0030%).
A worked example
To see what the equity is worth, imagine $100 each in a $200 pot. 53s is worth $100.46 on average (+$0.46); 22 is worth $99.54 (-$0.46).
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 485 won outright by 53s, about 480 won outright by 22 and about 35 split.
The same matchup from the other side
53s against 22 adds nothing new: it is 50.23% for 53s and 49.77% for 22, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 2s2h against 5d3d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 24 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session