22
48.65%
Wins 46.91%, ties 3.49%
54s
51.35%
Wins 49.60%, ties 3.49%
22 against 54s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 46.910 | 3.487 | 49.603 | 48.654 |
| 54s | 49.603 | 3.487 | 46.910 | 51.346 |
Here a pocket pair (22) meets a suited hand (54s). This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
54s leads by less than 3 points of equity, so the result of any one deal is close to a toss-up. Ties are 3.49% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
The hand ranking puts 22 at 87 and 54s at 136 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 19,278,000 | 1,433,000 | 20,384,000 |
| 54s | 20,384,000 | 1,433,000 | 19,278,000 |
The board total is exact, 24 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.948 | 2.132 | 2.016 | 1.055 |
| 54s | 1.055 | 2.016 | 2.132 | 0.948 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures 54s' equity moves by 15.60 points, from 47.15% on paired flops to 62.75% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). The overall edge for 54s hides rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and paired flops, where 22 comes out in front.
| Flop | Share of flops | 22 wins | Ties | 54s wins | 22 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 50.229 | 1.920 | 47.851 | 51.189 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 36.380 | 1.750 | 61.870 | 37.255 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 46.069 | 1.797 | 52.134 | 46.968 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 45.754 | 5.007 | 49.239 | 48.257 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 47.646 | 10.412 | 41.942 | 52.852 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
How much does the opponent matter? Compared with its random-hand 50.33%, 22 changes by -1.68 points, and 54s, from 41.45%, by +9.90.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22, all flops | 48.654 | 50.334 | -1.680 | 0.96662 |
| 22, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.189 | 50.334 | +0.855 | 1.01699 |
| 22, rainbow, nine or lower | 37.255 | 50.334 | -13.079 | 0.74016 |
| 22, two-tone | 46.968 | 50.334 | -3.366 | 0.93313 |
| 22, monotone | 48.257 | 50.334 | -2.077 | 0.95874 |
| 22, paired | 52.852 | 50.334 | +2.518 | 1.05003 |
| 54s, all flops | 51.346 | 41.453 | +9.893 | 1.23866 |
| 54s, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.811 | 41.453 | +7.358 | 1.17750 |
| 54s, rainbow, nine or lower | 62.745 | 41.453 | +21.292 | 1.51364 |
| 54s, two-tone | 53.032 | 41.453 | +11.579 | 1.27933 |
| 54s, monotone | 51.743 | 41.453 | +10.290 | 1.24823 |
| 54s, paired | 47.148 | 41.453 | +5.695 | 1.13738 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Of the deals of this matchup, 12 share a suit (54s at 51.23%) and 12 do not (51.46%). The two rows differ by only 0.23 points, so suits barely change this matchup.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 22 wins | Ties | 54s wins | 22 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 47.013 | 3.506 | 49.481 | 48.766 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 46.808 | 3.468 | 49.724 | 48.542 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, 22 against 54s appears in 24 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0015%), and in 48 when the seats are swapped too (0.0030%).
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: 54s averages $102.70 back, ahead of its $100 by $2.70, while 22 averages $97.30, short of its $100 by $2.70.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 496 outright wins for 54s, 469 for 22, and 35 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
54s against 22 adds nothing new: it is 51.35% for 54s and 48.65% for 22, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
Try 2s2h against 5d4d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 24 specific deals of 22 against 54s, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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