44
81.01%
Wins 79.14%, ties 3.74%
33
18.99%
Wins 17.12%, ties 3.74%
44 against 33: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 79.142 | 3.737 | 17.121 | 81.011 |
| 33 | 17.121 | 3.737 | 79.142 | 18.989 |
44 and 33 are both pocket pairs. Both hands are pairs, so the bigger pair is ahead on every board that does not pair a card below it.
That is a heavy lead: 33 needs the board to help it on most runouts and still falls behind far more often than not. Of every 100 boards, about 3.74 are split pots, and the equity figures already include them.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, 44 is number 48 of the 169 starting hands and 33 is number 66.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 48,785,000 | 2,304,000 | 10,554,000 |
| 33 | 10,554,000 | 2,304,000 | 48,785,000 |
The total is exact: 36 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 4.266 | 1.264 | 5.841 | 0.234 |
| 33 | 0.234 | 5.841 | 1.264 | 4.266 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
44 prefers rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, where it holds 82.67%, and likes low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) least, where it holds 75.80%. 44 stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | 44 wins | Ties | 33 wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 81.664 | 2.014 | 16.322 | 82.671 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 74.850 | 1.898 | 23.252 | 75.799 |
| Two-tone | 46.363 | 79.920 | 1.973 | 18.107 | 80.906 |
| Monotone | 5.152 | 73.748 | 4.363 | 21.889 | 75.930 |
| Paired | 17.576 | 76.200 | 11.272 | 12.528 | 81.836 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, 44 changes by +23.99 points (baseline 57.02%) and 33 by -34.70 points (baseline 53.69%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44, all flops | 81.011 | 57.023 | +23.988 | 1.42067 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 82.671 | 57.023 | +25.648 | 1.44978 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 75.799 | 57.023 | +18.776 | 1.32927 |
| 44, two-tone | 80.906 | 57.023 | +23.883 | 1.41883 |
| 44, monotone | 75.930 | 57.023 | +18.907 | 1.33157 |
| 44, paired | 81.836 | 57.023 | +24.813 | 1.43514 |
| 33, all flops | 18.989 | 53.693 | -34.704 | 0.35366 |
| 33, rainbow, ten or higher | 17.329 | 53.693 | -36.364 | 0.32274 |
| 33, rainbow, nine or lower | 24.201 | 53.693 | -29.492 | 0.45073 |
| 33, two-tone | 19.094 | 53.693 | -34.599 | 0.35561 |
| 33, monotone | 24.070 | 53.693 | -29.623 | 0.44829 |
| 33, paired | 18.164 | 53.693 | -35.529 | 0.33829 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Does suit overlap move the numbers? 44 has 81.15% when the hands share a suit and 80.32% when they do not. 44 does better with a shared suit, by 0.83 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 44 wins | Ties | 33 wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 30 | 83.33 | 79.274 | 3.748 | 16.978 | 81.148 |
| No shared suit | 6 | 16.67 | 78.483 | 3.682 | 17.835 | 80.324 |
How often this matchup comes up
How often does it happen? 36 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0022%) are 44 against 33, and 72 (0.0044%) if either hand may sit in either seat.
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average 44 takes back $162.02 of it, which is $62.02 more than it put in, and 33 takes back $37.98, $62.02 less than it put in.
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 792 wins for 44, 171 for 33 and 37 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: 33 against 44 is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so 33 holds 18.99% and 44 holds 81.01%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in 4s4h against 3d3c, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 36 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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