44
49.61%
Wins 49.03%, ties 1.16%
T9o
50.39%
Wins 49.81%, ties 1.16%
44 against T9o: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 49.029 | 1.159 | 49.812 | 49.608 |
| T9o | 49.812 | 1.159 | 49.029 | 50.392 |
We compare a pocket pair with an offsuit hand. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
That is a slim edge: neither hand is far ahead. Split pots make up 1.16% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
Place 48 of 169 belongs to 44 and place 78 belongs to T9o in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 60,446,000 | 1,429,000 | 61,411,000 |
| T9o | 61,411,000 | 1,429,000 | 60,446,000 |
The total is exact: 72 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.984 | 2.040 | 2.008 | 1.016 |
| T9o | 1.016 | 2.008 | 2.040 | 0.984 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, T9o peaks at 52.58% on monotone flops and bottoms out at 44.46% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). The lead reverses on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and paired flops: there 44 is the favorite even though T9o is ahead overall.
| Flop | Share of flops | 44 wins | Ties | T9o wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.341 | 47.177 | 0.680 | 52.143 | 47.517 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.689 | 55.247 | 0.584 | 44.169 | 55.539 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 48.508 | 0.649 | 50.843 | 48.833 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 46.270 | 2.311 | 51.419 | 47.425 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 51.911 | 3.075 | 45.014 | 53.448 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
How much does the opponent matter? Compared with its random-hand 57.02%, 44 changes by -7.41 points, and T9o, from 51.53%, by -1.14.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44, all flops | 49.608 | 57.023 | -7.415 | 0.86996 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 47.517 | 57.023 | -9.506 | 0.83330 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 55.539 | 57.023 | -1.484 | 0.97398 |
| 44, two-tone | 48.833 | 57.023 | -8.190 | 0.85637 |
| 44, monotone | 47.425 | 57.023 | -9.598 | 0.83168 |
| 44, paired | 53.448 | 57.023 | -3.575 | 0.93731 |
| T9o, all flops | 50.392 | 51.532 | -1.140 | 0.97788 |
| T9o, rainbow, ten or higher | 52.483 | 51.532 | +0.951 | 1.01845 |
| T9o, rainbow, nine or lower | 44.461 | 51.532 | -7.071 | 0.86278 |
| T9o, two-tone | 51.167 | 51.532 | -0.365 | 0.99292 |
| T9o, monotone | 52.575 | 51.532 | +1.043 | 1.02024 |
| T9o, paired | 46.552 | 51.532 | -4.980 | 0.90336 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give T9o 50.49% when the hands overlap in a suit and 49.93% when they do not. T9o does better with a shared suit, by 0.56 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 44 wins | Ties | T9o wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 48.929 | 1.173 | 49.898 | 49.515 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 49.527 | 1.093 | 49.380 | 50.074 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, 44 against T9o appears in 72 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0044%), and in 144 when the seats are swapped too (0.0089%).
A worked example
Put $100 each into a $200 pot and deal every board once: T9o averages $100.78 back, ahead of its $100 by $0.78, while 44 averages $99.22, short of its $100 by $0.78.
Run 1,000 deals and the tally comes out near 498 for T9o, 490 for 44 and 12 ties.
The same matchup from the other side
The reversed view, T9o against 44, shows 50.39% for T9o and 49.61% for 44. It is the same count, so it redirects here.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 4s4h against Td9c already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 72 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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