44
82.62%
Wins 79.80%, ties 5.64%
43s
17.38%
Wins 14.56%, ties 5.64%
44 against 43s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 79.797 | 5.644 | 14.559 | 82.619 |
| 43s | 14.559 | 5.644 | 79.797 | 17.381 |
The matchup pits a pocket pair against a suited hand. One hand holds a card of the same rank as the pair, which removes a card the pair needs and makes the pair a bigger favorite.
That is a heavy lead: 43s needs the board to help it on most runouts and still falls behind far more often than not. Ties are 5.64% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
Among the 169 starting hands, 44 is number 48 and 43s is number 150 by strength against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 16,396,000 | 1,160,000 | 2,992,000 |
| 43s | 2,992,000 | 1,160,000 | 16,396,000 |
The board total is exact, 12 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 4.753 | 1.253 | 6.869 | 0.210 |
| 43s | 0.210 | 6.869 | 1.253 | 4.753 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures 44's equity moves by 13.50 points, from 74.45% on monotone flops to 87.95% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. 44 stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | 44 wins | Ties | 43s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.786 | 86.302 | 3.297 | 10.401 | 87.951 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 4.995 | 75.470 | 8.000 | 16.530 | 79.470 |
| Two-tone | 46.236 | 80.064 | 3.796 | 16.140 | 81.962 |
| Monotone | 5.152 | 71.912 | 5.069 | 23.019 | 74.447 |
| Paired | 17.831 | 73.187 | 13.337 | 13.476 | 79.855 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of +25.60 points for 44, from 57.02%, and -21.26 for 43s, from 38.64%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44, all flops | 82.619 | 57.023 | +25.596 | 1.44887 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 87.951 | 57.023 | +30.928 | 1.54238 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 79.470 | 57.023 | +22.447 | 1.39365 |
| 44, two-tone | 81.962 | 57.023 | +24.939 | 1.43735 |
| 44, monotone | 74.447 | 57.023 | +17.424 | 1.30556 |
| 44, paired | 79.855 | 57.023 | +22.832 | 1.40040 |
| 43s, all flops | 17.381 | 38.642 | -21.261 | 0.44980 |
| 43s, rainbow, ten or higher | 12.049 | 38.642 | -26.593 | 0.31181 |
| 43s, rainbow, nine or lower | 20.530 | 38.642 | -18.112 | 0.53129 |
| 43s, two-tone | 18.038 | 38.642 | -20.604 | 0.46680 |
| 43s, monotone | 25.553 | 38.642 | -13.089 | 0.66128 |
| 43s, paired | 20.145 | 38.642 | -18.497 | 0.52132 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suits do not split this matchup, because no legal deal has the hands holding the same suit.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 44 wins | Ties | 43s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 0 | 0.00 | not possible | not possible | not possible | not possible |
| No shared suit | 12 | 100.00 | 79.797 | 5.644 | 14.559 | 82.619 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0015% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 24 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 44's equity of 82.62% is worth $165.24, a $65.24 edge, and 43s' 17.38% is worth $34.76, which is $65.24 under its stake.
Per 1,000 deals: 44 wins about 798, 43s wins about 146, and about 56 end in a split pot.
The same matchup from the other side
The reversed view, 43s against 44, shows 17.38% for 43s and 82.62% for 44. It is the same count, so it redirects here.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 4s4h against 4d3d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 12 specific 44 against 43s deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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