44
66.19%
Wins 64.75%, ties 2.87%
53s
33.81%
Wins 32.38%, ties 2.87%
44 against 53s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 64.754 | 2.868 | 32.378 | 66.188 |
| 53s | 32.378 | 2.868 | 64.754 | 33.812 |
Here a pocket pair (44) meets a suited hand (53s). One of the other hand's cards outranks the pair and one is below it, which makes this a closer race than a pair against two small cards.
That is a clear edge, 66.19% to 33.81%, but 53s still wins often enough that one hand proves nothing. 2.87% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, 44 is number 48 of the 169 starting hands and 53s is number 146.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 26,611,000 | 1,179,000 | 13,306,000 |
| 53s | 13,306,000 | 1,179,000 | 26,611,000 |
Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 1.958 | 1.544 | 3.089 | 0.511 |
| 53s | 0.511 | 3.089 | 1.544 | 1.958 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Break the boards down by their first three cards and 44 is strongest on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better (69.82%) and weakest on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) (59.68%). 44 stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | 44 wins | Ties | 53s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 69.006 | 1.635 | 29.359 | 69.823 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 58.991 | 1.384 | 39.625 | 59.683 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 64.210 | 1.510 | 34.280 | 64.965 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 60.145 | 3.900 | 35.955 | 62.095 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 62.948 | 8.474 | 28.578 | 67.185 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts 44 from 57.02% by +9.17 points and 53s from 39.69% by -5.88 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44, all flops | 66.188 | 57.023 | +9.165 | 1.16072 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 69.823 | 57.023 | +12.800 | 1.22447 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 59.683 | 57.023 | +2.660 | 1.04665 |
| 44, two-tone | 64.965 | 57.023 | +7.942 | 1.13928 |
| 44, monotone | 62.095 | 57.023 | +5.072 | 1.08895 |
| 44, paired | 67.185 | 57.023 | +10.162 | 1.17821 |
| 53s, all flops | 33.812 | 39.693 | -5.881 | 0.85184 |
| 53s, rainbow, ten or higher | 30.177 | 39.693 | -9.516 | 0.76026 |
| 53s, rainbow, nine or lower | 40.317 | 39.693 | +0.624 | 1.01572 |
| 53s, two-tone | 35.035 | 39.693 | -4.658 | 0.88265 |
| 53s, monotone | 37.905 | 39.693 | -1.788 | 0.95495 |
| 53s, paired | 32.815 | 39.693 | -6.878 | 0.82672 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Split by suits, the deals give 44 66.41% when the hands overlap in a suit and 65.97% when they do not. 44 does better with a shared suit, by 0.44 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 44 wins | Ties | 53s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 64.958 | 2.902 | 32.140 | 66.409 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 64.551 | 2.833 | 32.616 | 65.968 |
How often this matchup comes up
44 against 53s is made up of 24 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0015% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 48 counting both seat orders, 0.0030%.
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average 44 takes back $132.38 of it, which is $32.38 more than it put in, and 53s takes back $67.62, $32.38 less than it put in.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 647 for 44, 324 for 53s and 29 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
Swap the hands and you get 53s with 33.81% against 44 with 66.19%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first.
Keep exploring
4s4h against 5d3d is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 24 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session