44
49.46%
Wins 48.55%, ties 1.81%
76s
50.54%
Wins 49.64%, ties 1.81%
44 against 76s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 48.554 | 1.808 | 49.638 | 49.458 |
| 76s | 49.638 | 1.808 | 48.554 | 50.542 |
One side is a pocket pair, the other is a suited hand. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
This is close to even money, with 76s a little ahead. Ties are part of the picture: 1.81% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
44 ranks number 48 of 169 starting hands, and 76s ranks number 115, by equity against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 19,953,000 | 743,000 | 20,399,000 |
| 76s | 20,399,000 | 743,000 | 19,953,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.979 | 2.060 | 2.015 | 1.022 |
| 76s | 1.022 | 2.015 | 2.060 | 0.979 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. 76s does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 59.83%, and worst on paired flops, at 45.84%. The lead reverses on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and paired flops: there 44 is the favorite even though 76s is ahead overall.
| Flop | Share of flops | 44 wins | Ties | 76s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 50.930 | 1.081 | 47.989 | 51.471 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 39.859 | 0.621 | 59.520 | 40.169 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 47.156 | 0.955 | 51.889 | 47.634 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 47.478 | 3.346 | 49.176 | 49.151 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 51.628 | 5.068 | 43.304 | 54.162 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, 44 changes by -7.56 points (baseline 57.02%) and 76s by +5.17 points (baseline 45.37%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44, all flops | 49.458 | 57.023 | -7.565 | 0.86733 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.471 | 57.023 | -5.552 | 0.90264 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 40.169 | 57.023 | -16.854 | 0.70444 |
| 44, two-tone | 47.634 | 57.023 | -9.389 | 0.83535 |
| 44, monotone | 49.151 | 57.023 | -7.872 | 0.86195 |
| 44, paired | 54.162 | 57.023 | -2.861 | 0.94983 |
| 76s, all flops | 50.542 | 45.372 | +5.170 | 1.11395 |
| 76s, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.529 | 45.372 | +3.157 | 1.06958 |
| 76s, rainbow, nine or lower | 59.831 | 45.372 | +14.459 | 1.31868 |
| 76s, two-tone | 52.366 | 45.372 | +6.994 | 1.15415 |
| 76s, monotone | 50.849 | 45.372 | +5.477 | 1.12071 |
| 76s, paired | 45.838 | 45.372 | +0.466 | 1.01027 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 50.43% for 76s with a shared suit and 50.65% without one. The two rows differ by only 0.22 points, so suits barely change this matchup.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 44 wins | Ties | 76s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 48.647 | 1.842 | 49.511 | 49.568 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 48.461 | 1.775 | 49.764 | 49.348 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0030% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 48 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, 76s' average share is $101.08 (a gain of $1.08) and 44's is $98.92 (a loss of $1.08).
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 496 wins for 76s, 486 for 44 and 18 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
One page covers both views. From 76s' side the equity is 50.54%, and from 44's side it is 49.46%.
Keep exploring
4s4h against 7d6d is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
All 1,712,304 five-card boards are dealt for every suit pattern among the 24 specific deals of 44 against 76s, and both hands are scored on each. That is a full count, so the percentages are exact. Ties are half a win each, and each board appears once per flop it contains.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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