44
49.77%
Wins 48.96%, ties 1.61%
86s
50.23%
Wins 49.43%, ties 1.61%
44 against 86s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 48.963 | 1.611 | 49.426 | 49.768 |
| 86s | 49.426 | 1.611 | 48.963 | 50.232 |
44 and 86s are a pocket pair and a suited hand, in that order. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
That is a slim edge: neither hand is far ahead. Ties are 1.61% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
44 ranks number 48 of 169 starting hands, and 86s ranks number 110, by equity against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 20,121,000 | 662,000 | 20,312,000 |
| 86s | 20,312,000 | 662,000 | 20,121,000 |
24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.991 | 2.042 | 2.023 | 1.009 |
| 86s | 1.009 | 2.023 | 2.042 | 0.991 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: 86s holds 57.96% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and 46.24% on paired flops. On rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and paired flops the numbers flip and 44 is the one ahead.
| Flop | Share of flops | 44 wins | Ties | 86s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 51.207 | 0.953 | 47.840 | 51.684 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 41.719 | 0.645 | 57.636 | 42.041 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 47.654 | 0.858 | 51.488 | 48.083 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 47.912 | 3.256 | 48.832 | 49.540 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 51.564 | 4.402 | 44.034 | 53.765 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
A random hand would give 44 57.02% and 86s 46.24%. Against each other the change is -7.25 points for 44 and +3.99 for 86s.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44, all flops | 49.768 | 57.023 | -7.255 | 0.87277 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.684 | 57.023 | -5.339 | 0.90637 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 42.041 | 57.023 | -14.982 | 0.73726 |
| 44, two-tone | 48.083 | 57.023 | -8.940 | 0.84322 |
| 44, monotone | 49.540 | 57.023 | -7.483 | 0.86877 |
| 44, paired | 53.765 | 57.023 | -3.258 | 0.94287 |
| 86s, all flops | 50.232 | 46.243 | +3.989 | 1.08626 |
| 86s, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.316 | 46.243 | +2.073 | 1.04483 |
| 86s, rainbow, nine or lower | 57.959 | 46.243 | +11.716 | 1.25336 |
| 86s, two-tone | 51.917 | 46.243 | +5.674 | 1.12270 |
| 86s, monotone | 50.460 | 46.243 | +4.217 | 1.09119 |
| 86s, paired | 46.235 | 46.243 | -0.008 | 0.99983 |
Does a shared suit matter?
The suit split reads 50.10% for 86s with a shared suit and 50.36% without one. 86s does better with no shared suit, by 0.26 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 44 wins | Ties | 86s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 49.077 | 1.645 | 49.278 | 49.900 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 48.849 | 1.577 | 49.574 | 49.637 |
How often this matchup comes up
Exactly 24 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0015% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 48, or 0.0030%.
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. 86s averages $100.46 from the $200, up $0.46; 44 averages $99.54, down $0.46.
Run 1,000 deals and the tally comes out near 494 for 86s, 490 for 44 and 16 ties.
The same matchup from the other side
86s versus 44 is this same page seen from the other hand: 50.23% for 86s, 49.77% for 44.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with 4s4h against 8d6d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 24 ways to deal one 44 and one 86s without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session