88 vs ATo: preflop equity

The exact count puts 88 at 55.42% and ATo at 44.58% when the two hands see all five board cards.

88

55.42%

Wins 55.24%, ties 0.36%

ATo

44.58%

Wins 44.40%, ties 0.36%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

88 against ATo: the numbers

Exact preflop results for 88 against ATo, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
8855.2440.35644.40055.422
ATo44.4000.35655.24444.578

88, a pocket pair, plays ATo, an offsuit hand. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.

The lead is steady rather than large, and the flop still has plenty of say in who wins. A split pot comes up on 0.36% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.

In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, 88 is number 7 and ATo is number 19.

Boards behind the percentages: 123,285,888 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
8868,108,000439,00054,739,000
ATo54,739,000439,00068,108,000

72 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.

88 against ATo read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
881.2431.8102.2520.804
ATo0.8042.2521.8101.243

The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.

Who is ahead on which flops

By flop texture, 88's equity runs from 48.49% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better up to 79.27% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). ATo is ahead on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, even though it trails 88 when every flop is counted.

88 against ATo by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flops88 winsTiesATo wins88 equity
Rainbow, ten or higher24.71748.4050.17751.41848.494
Rainbow, nine or lower6.31478.9190.70620.37579.272
Two-tone46.48554.2720.27445.45454.409
Monotone5.15150.9261.67747.39751.765
Paired17.33360.2600.31339.42760.417

Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.

Compared with a random hand

The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of -13.74 points for 88, from 69.16%, and -18.14 for ATo, from 62.72%.

88 and ATo here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
88, all flops55.42269.163-13.7410.80132
88, rainbow, ten or higher48.49469.163-20.6690.70116
88, rainbow, nine or lower79.27269.163+10.1091.14616
88, two-tone54.40969.163-14.7540.78668
88, monotone51.76569.163-17.3980.74845
88, paired60.41769.163-8.7460.87355
ATo, all flops44.57862.722-18.1440.71072
ATo, rainbow, ten or higher51.50662.722-11.2160.82118
ATo, rainbow, nine or lower20.72862.722-41.9940.33047
ATo, two-tone45.59162.722-17.1310.72687
ATo, monotone48.23562.722-14.4870.76903
ATo, paired39.58362.722-23.1390.63109

Does a shared suit matter?

Of the deals of this matchup, 60 share a suit (88 at 55.34%) and 12 do not (55.83%). 88 does better with no shared suit, by 0.49 points.

88 against ATo by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of deals88 winsTiesATo wins88 equity
Share a suit6083.3355.1540.37244.47455.340
No shared suit1216.6755.6920.27744.03155.831

How often this matchup comes up

You will meet this exact matchup 0.0089% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 144 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.

A worked example

Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 88's equity of 55.42% is worth $110.84, a $10.84 edge, and ATo's 44.58% is worth $89.16, which is $10.84 under its stake.

In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 552 won outright by 88, about 444 won outright by ATo and about 4 split.

The same matchup from the other side

ATo against 88 adds nothing new: it is 44.58% for ATo and 55.42% for 88, the same figures reversed.

8s8h against AdTc is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.

How this was computed

This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 72 ways to deal one 88 and one ATo without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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