AKs
74.85%
Wins 72.64%, ties 4.42%
ATo
25.15%
Wins 22.94%, ties 4.42%
AKs against ATo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 72.638 | 4.423 | 22.939 | 74.850 |
| ATo | 22.939 | 4.423 | 72.638 | 25.150 |
Here a suited hand (AKs) meets an offsuit hand (ATo). The two hands share a rank, and the one with the better other card dominates: it wins most kicker battles when that shared rank hits.
AKs is the clear favorite, though ATo gets there on roughly one board in 4. Ties are part of the picture: 4.42% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
The hand ranking puts AKs at 8 and ATo at 19 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 44,776,000 | 2,726,000 | 14,140,000 |
| ATo | 14,140,000 | 2,726,000 | 44,776,000 |
The board total is exact, 36 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 2.976 | 1.377 | 4.359 | 0.336 |
| ATo | 0.336 | 4.359 | 1.377 | 2.976 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures AKs' equity moves by 16.02 points, from 67.46% on monotone flops to 83.48% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AKs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AKs wins | Ties | ATo wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.177 | 71.588 | 2.025 | 26.387 | 72.601 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 80.904 | 5.145 | 13.951 | 83.476 |
| Two-tone | 46.527 | 74.080 | 2.642 | 23.278 | 75.401 |
| Monotone | 5.192 | 65.471 | 3.969 | 30.560 | 67.455 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 68.614 | 12.219 | 19.167 | 74.723 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of +7.80 points for AKs, from 67.05%, and -37.57 for ATo, from 62.72%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs, all flops | 74.850 | 67.045 | +7.805 | 1.11641 |
| AKs, rainbow, ten or higher | 72.601 | 67.045 | +5.556 | 1.08287 |
| AKs, rainbow, nine or lower | 83.476 | 67.045 | +16.431 | 1.24507 |
| AKs, two-tone | 75.401 | 67.045 | +8.356 | 1.12463 |
| AKs, monotone | 67.455 | 67.045 | +0.410 | 1.00612 |
| AKs, paired | 74.723 | 67.045 | +7.678 | 1.11452 |
| ATo, all flops | 25.150 | 62.722 | -37.572 | 0.40098 |
| ATo, rainbow, ten or higher | 27.399 | 62.722 | -35.323 | 0.43683 |
| ATo, rainbow, nine or lower | 16.524 | 62.722 | -46.198 | 0.26345 |
| ATo, two-tone | 24.599 | 62.722 | -38.123 | 0.39219 |
| ATo, monotone | 32.545 | 62.722 | -30.177 | 0.51888 |
| ATo, paired | 25.277 | 62.722 | -37.445 | 0.40300 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common AKs has 74.62% equity, and with none in common it has 74.97%. AKs does better with no shared suit, by 0.35 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AKs wins | Ties | ATo wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 33.33 | 72.370 | 4.495 | 23.135 | 74.617 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 66.67 | 72.773 | 4.386 | 22.841 | 74.966 |
How often this matchup comes up
Exactly 36 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0022% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 72, or 0.0044%.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, AKs' average share is $149.70 (a gain of $49.70) and ATo's is $50.30 (a loss of $49.70).
Think in thousands: about 726 of 1,000 go to AKs, about 230 go to ATo, and about 44 are chopped.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: ATo against AKs is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so ATo holds 25.15% and AKs holds 74.85%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
Try AsKs against AhTd in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 36 deals of AKs against ATo fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session