98s
64.01%
Wins 62.65%, ties 2.72%
53s
35.99%
Wins 34.63%, ties 2.72%
98s against 53s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98s | 62.645 | 2.720 | 34.635 | 64.005 |
| 53s | 34.635 | 2.720 | 62.645 | 35.995 |
Here suited hands face each other, 98s on one side and 53s on the other. The two hands share no rank, which makes this a pure matchup of card strength, straight chances and flush chances.
That is a modest edge, the kind that shows up over many hands and is easy to miss in one. Ties are 2.72% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
For context, 98s sits at number 83 of 169 starting hands and 53s at number 146 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 98s | 17,163,000 | 745,000 | 9,489,000 |
| 53s | 9,489,000 | 745,000 | 17,163,000 |
The total is exact: 16 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98s | 1.778 | 1.596 | 2.887 | 0.562 |
| 53s | 0.562 | 2.887 | 1.596 | 1.778 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: 98s holds 65.96% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and 59.62% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). 98s stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | 98s wins | Ties | 53s wins | 98s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.844 | 64.953 | 2.023 | 33.024 | 65.964 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.065 | 59.323 | 0.599 | 40.078 | 59.622 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 62.997 | 1.606 | 35.397 | 63.800 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 59.193 | 4.408 | 36.399 | 61.397 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 60.243 | 6.928 | 32.829 | 63.707 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
How much does the opponent matter? Compared with its random-hand 50.80%, 98s changes by +13.21 points, and 53s, from 39.69%, by -3.70.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98s, all flops | 64.005 | 50.801 | +13.204 | 1.25992 |
| 98s, rainbow, ten or higher | 65.964 | 50.801 | +15.163 | 1.29848 |
| 98s, rainbow, nine or lower | 59.622 | 50.801 | +8.821 | 1.17364 |
| 98s, two-tone | 63.800 | 50.801 | +12.999 | 1.25588 |
| 98s, monotone | 61.397 | 50.801 | +10.596 | 1.20858 |
| 98s, paired | 63.707 | 50.801 | +12.906 | 1.25405 |
| 53s, all flops | 35.995 | 39.693 | -3.698 | 0.90683 |
| 53s, rainbow, ten or higher | 34.036 | 39.693 | -5.657 | 0.85748 |
| 53s, rainbow, nine or lower | 40.378 | 39.693 | +0.685 | 1.01726 |
| 53s, two-tone | 36.200 | 39.693 | -3.493 | 0.91200 |
| 53s, monotone | 38.603 | 39.693 | -1.090 | 0.97254 |
| 53s, paired | 36.293 | 39.693 | -3.400 | 0.91434 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 4 of them the hands share a suit and 98s holds 66.45%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 63.19%. 98s does better with a shared suit, by 3.26 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 98s wins | Ties | 53s wins | 98s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 64.980 | 2.930 | 32.090 | 66.445 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 61.867 | 2.650 | 35.483 | 63.192 |
How often this matchup comes up
Exactly 16 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0010% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 32, or 0.0020%.
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 98s' equity of 64.01% is worth $128.02, a $28.02 edge, and 53s' 35.99% is worth $71.98, which is $28.02 under its stake.
A thousand deals look like this: 98s takes 627, 53s takes 346, 27 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
53s against 98s adds nothing new: it is 35.99% for 53s and 64.01% for 98s, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in 9s8s against 5h3h, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
Nothing here is simulated. The 16 deals of 98s against 53s fall into a few suit patterns, each dealt against all 1,712,304 boards, with both best five-card hands compared on every board. Ties give each hand half a win, and the flop rows count a board under each of its ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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